Mean state and day-to-day variability of tropospheric circulation in planetary-scale barotropic Rossby waves during Eurasian heat extremes in CMIP5 models

Strigunova, Iana; Lunkeit, Frank; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Jelić, Damjan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1283-2025

Articles | Volume 6, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1283-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1283-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 4

Research article

|

04 Nov 2025

Research article |

| 04 Nov 2025

Mean state and day-to-day variability of tropospheric circulation in planetary-scale barotropic Rossby waves during Eurasian heat extremes in CMIP5 models

Iana Strigunova, Frank Lunkeit, Nedjeljka Žagar, and Damjan Jelić

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1283-2025-supplement

Data sets

IanaStrigunova/python-pdf-skewness-energy-anom: v1 (mean-state-variability) Iana Strigunova https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17449724

Data and scripts for "Mean state and day-to-day variability of tropospheric circulation in planetary-scale barotropic Rossby waves during Eurasian heat extremes in CMIP5 models" Iana Strigunova et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17482898

Model code and software

IanaStrigunova/python-pdf-skewness-energy-anom: v1 (mean-state-variability) Iana Strigunova https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17449724

Short summary

Our study builds on previous research by examining how climate models simulate the large-scale Rossby wave circulation during present-day Eurasian heat waves (EHWs) and how it alters in the future. We find no increase in future frequency for EHWs defined with respect to the simulated mean climate. The models capture the averaged atmospheric circulation during EHWs but struggle with daily variability. Our results highlight the need for improvements to enhance predictions of extreme weather.