Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2025
| 07 Feb 2025
A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems
Chaim I. Garfinkel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Zachary D. Lawrence
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Amy H. Butler
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Etienne Dunn-Sigouin
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Irina Statnaia
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Research, Helsinki, Finland
Alexey Y. Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Research, Helsinki, Finland
Gerbrand Koren
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Marta Abalos
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Blanca Ayarzagüena
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
David Barriopedro
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas–Universidad Complutense de Madrid (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Natalia Calvo
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Alvaro de la Cámara
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Andrew Charlton-Perez
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Judah Cohen
Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc., Lexington, MA, USA
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Javier García-Serrano
Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
Neil P. Hindley
Centre for Climate Adaptation & Environment Research, University of Bath, Bath, UK
Martin Jucker
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Robert W. Lee
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Simon H. Lee
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Marisol Osman
CONICET–Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
CNRS–IRD–CONICET–UBA, Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios sobre el Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351, IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Froila M. Palmeiro
Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
Inna Polichtchouk
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Jadwiga H. Richter
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Chen Schwartz
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Masakazu Taguchi
Department of Earth Science, Aichi University of Education, Kariya, Japan
Nicholas L. Tyrrell
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Research, Helsinki, Finland
Corwin J. Wright
Centre for Climate Adaptation & Environment Research, University of Bath, Bath, UK
Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Data sets
The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/) F. Vitart et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1
GEFSv12 Reforecast Dataset for Supporting Subseasonal and Hydrometeorological Applications (https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-gefs-reforecast/) Hong Guan et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0245.1
Subseasonal EarthSystem Prediction with CESM2 (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.cesm2.s2s_hindcasts.html and https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.cesm2-waccm.s2s_hindcasts.html) Jadwiga H. Richter et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0163.1
Short summary
Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the...
