Mesoscale Convective Systems cause extreme weather and flash floods, yet they remain difficult to simulate in climate models. We developed the Evolution-based Mesoscale Convective System Model Assessment tool to identify these storms using standard model data. Our 27-year record for Europe shows these systems drive over 60 percent of heavy hourly rain. This benchmark allows us to evaluate climate model performance and investigate how these intense storms will change in a warming climate.

Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.

Estimating the frequency and magnitude of floods is challenging due to the limited length of streamflow records. Here, we explore whether an extensive archive of meteorological forecasts run over past dates can assist in this context. After processing and concatenating these data for use as input to a hydrological model, we derive flood statistics from simulated streamflow. Results are promising for the larger catchments studied, providing a valuable complementary perspective on rare floods.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and atmospheric blocking can markedly influence winter extratropical surface weather. To study the relationship between SSWs and blocking, we examine dynamic stratosphere–troposphere coupling using vertically highly resolved observations from global navigation satellite system radio occultation for 2007–2019. Our results provide a purely observational view of the evolution of major SSWs, their link to blocking, and their effect on the polar tropopause.

Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.