Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-317-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-317-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
Research article
 | 
20 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 20 Mar 2025

Assessing the skill of high-impact weather forecasts in southern South America: a study on cut-off lows

Belén Choquehuanca, Alejandro Anibal Godoy, and Ramiro Ignacio Saurral

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Short summary
High-impact surface weather over southern South America is often caused by synoptic-scale weather systems known as cut-off lows (COLs). To better understand the forecast uncertainties associated with COLs in that region, we evaluated the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) performance in a hotspot area of COLs over southern South America. COLs tend to be weak and slow in the GEFS, potentially affecting the environmental conditions that trigger heavy rainfall over the study region.
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