Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology

Anderson, Yvonne; Perez, Jacob; Maycock, Amanda C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

Research article

|

03 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 03 Jun 2025

Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology

Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025-supplement

Data sets

Jet feature data from PAMIP model simulations Yvonne Anderson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8279707

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) datasets WCRP https://esgf-ui.ceda.ac.uk/cog/projects/cmip6-ceda/

ERA-5 reanalysis data H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf

Model code and software

Eddy-Driven Jet Object (EDJO) identification methodology Jacob Perez https://github.com/scjpleeds/EDJO-identification

EDJO-identification Jacob Perez https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12749978

Short summary

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.