Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Research article
 | 
03 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 03 Jun 2025

Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology

Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock

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Cited articles

Anderson, Y.: Jet feature data from PAMIP model simulations, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8279707, 2023. 
Barnes, E. A.: Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4734–4739, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880, 2013. 
Barnes, E. A. and Screen, J. A.: The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?, WIREs Clim. Change, 6, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337, 2015. 
Blackport, R. and Screen, J. A.: Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves, Sci. Adv., 6, eaay2880, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880, 2020. 
Blackport, R. and Screen, J. A.: Observed Statistical Connections Overestimate the Causal Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Changes on Midlatitude Winter Climate, J. Climate, 34, 3021–3038, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0293.1, 2021. 
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Short summary
The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
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