The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes

Köhler, Daniel; Räisänen, Petri; Naakka, Tuomas; Nordling, Kalle; Sinclair, Victoria A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

Research article

|

25 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 25 Jun 2025

The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes

Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair

Data sets

The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes; Data and scripts Daniel Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14054331

CRiceS: OpenIFS-43r3 model data Daniel Köhler et al. https://a3s.fi/CRiceS_Index/CRiceS_index.html

crices-task33-output-ecearth P. Räisänen https://crices-task33-output-ecearth.lake.fmi.fi/index.html

crices-task33-output-ecearth-ifs-monthly-means P. Räisänen https://crices-task33-output-ecearth-ifs-monthly-means.lake.fmi.fi/index.html

Global fields of meteorological and aerosol data from seven experiments with the NorESM2 model under different warming scenarios Tuomas Naakka et al. https://doi.org/10.17043/naakka-2025-noresm2-1

CESM2 Seaice and SST experiment for crices project Kalle Nordling https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00018

Model code and software

TRACK algorithm K. I. Hodges https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track

Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) Ø. Seland et al. https://github.com/NorESMhub/NorESM

The Community Earth System Model G. Danabasoglu et al. https://github.com/ESCOMP/CESM

Short summary

We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drives these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.