Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
Research article
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26 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 26 Sep 2025

Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders

Fiona R. Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, and Theodore G. Shepherd

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Data for 'Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders' Fiona Spuler https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14534652

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Executive editor
The occurrence and predictability of extreme events is often modulated by regional dynamical drivers, but their identification is not straightforward. This paper by Fiona Spuler et al. presents an innovate approach to dimensionality reduction targeted on regionally occurring phenomena. Their approach is based on a machine-learning method demonstrating, in a broad sense, that these method can identify physically interpretable drivers of targeted phenomena. The authors discuss the tradeoff between regime informativeness of local precipitation extremes and predictability of the regimes at subseasonal lead times. The novel machine-learning-based approach may find useful application beyond atmospheric and climate science.
Short summary
Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can improve their prediction. We present a generative machine learning method to identify key dynamical drivers of an impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applied to extreme precipitation in Morocco, we show that these targeted regimes are more predictive of the impact while preserving their own predictability and physical consistency.
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