Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1219-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1219-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
13 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2026

A synoptic clustering-based definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset and application to seasonal prediction

Dzung Nguyen-Le

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Short summary

Predicting the start of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea is important because it affects rainfall, farming, and flood risk across East Asia, but it is difficult to forecast far in advance. We tested a new way to define monsoon onset based on a lasting shift in large-scale weather patterns rather than a single wind threshold. Using seasonal forecast data, we found that this approach improves prediction skill and gives a more physically consistent picture of monsoon onset.

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