Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1219-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1219-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
13 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2026

A synoptic clustering-based definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset and application to seasonal prediction

Dzung Nguyen-Le

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Cited articles

Attada, R., Ehsan, M. A., and Pillai, P. A.: Evaluation of Potential Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in ECMWF's Fifth-Generation Seasonal Forecast System (SEAS5), Pure Appl. Geophys., 179, 4639–4655, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03184-9, 2022. 
Bombardi, R. J., Pegion, K. V., Kinter, J. L., Cash, B. A., and Adams, J. M.: Sub-seasonal Predictability of the Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Monsoonal Regions, Front. Earth Sci., 5, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00014, 2017. 
Bombardi, R. J., Moron, V., and Goodnight, J. S.: Detection, variability, and predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates: A review, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 641–667, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6264, 2020. 
Borah, N., Sahai, A. K., Chattopadhyay, R., Joseph, S., Abhilash, S., and Goswami, B. N.: A self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon, JGR Atmospheres, 118, 9022–9034, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50688, 2013. 
Bui-Minh, T., Doan, Q.-V., Nguyen, K.-C., Phan-Van, T., Trinh-Tuan, L., Cong, T., and Trinh-Minh, N.: Determining the onset of summer rainfall over Vietnam using self-organizing maps, Clim. Dynam., 62, 9189–9206, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07385-x, 2024. 
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Predicting the start of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea is important because it affects rainfall, farming, and flood risk across East Asia, but it is difficult to forecast far in advance. We tested a new way to define monsoon onset based on a lasting shift in large-scale weather patterns rather than a single wind threshold. Using seasonal forecast data, we found that this approach improves prediction skill and gives a more physically consistent picture of monsoon onset.

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