Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1307-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1307-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2026

Intraseasonal prediction of monthly storminess in the North Sea with the ACE2 atmospheric emulator and Random Forests

Proshonni Aziz, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita

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Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, D., Wulff, C. O., Sprenger, M., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024. a
Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2): ACE2-ERA5, Hugging Face, https://doi.org/10.57967/HF/5377, 2025. a
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido-Pérez, J. M., Abalos, M., de la Cámara, A., and García-Herrera, R.: Stratospheric connection to the abrupt end of the 2016/2017 Iberian drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079802, 2018. a
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton‐Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020rg000708, 2021. a, b
Bellinghausen, K., Hünicke, B., and Zorita, E.: Coherent Modes of Northern Hemisphere Wind Extremes and Their Links to Global Large-Scale Drivers, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-523, 2026. a
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By analysing data from 1940 to 2024, we found that upper atmosphere conditions in early winter directly influence the number of North Sea storms occurring weeks or months later. We used a climate model and machine learning to improve these forecasts. Results show that December patterns can predict January storminess with high accuracy, with effects persisting for up to 60 d. Stratospheric data and machine learning together improve winter storm prediction for this region.
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