Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1331-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1331-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2026

Revisiting the historical wintertime drying of the Mediterranean in the LESFMIP simulations

David Avisar and Chaim I. Garfinkel

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Short summary
We use the Large Ensemble Single Forcing simulations to assess the role of individual forcings to the Mediterranean drying and to clarify the dynamical origin of the model’s prediction variability. A more pronounced North Atlantic warming hole, a stronger stratospheric polar vortex, and a larger poleward shift of the subtropical jet correlate with a stronger drying trend. Aerosols had a detectable influence on Mediterranean climate. Hence, their removal may have an impact in future decades.
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Advances in annual to decadal prediction, projection, and...