Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Co-occurrence of atmospheric deserts over Europe with strong positive temperature anomalies, thunderstorms, and dust events
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Achim Zeileis
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Isabell Stucke
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Reto Stauffer
Department of Statistics & Digital Science Center, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Georg J. Mayr
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
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Atmospheric deserts are air masses from the boundary layer of desert regions. This study tracked them from North Africa to Europe during a two-year period (May 2022–April 2024). They can occur up to 60 % of the time, and can span large parts of Europe. They typically last about a day, and can alter the atmosphere throughout the free troposphere. On its way from Africa the air either rises and may become even warmer and drier, or it stays at mid-altitudes and cools, or retains its properties.
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Atmospheric deserts (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow an AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyse the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
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The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and failing to anticipate these ramp events can lead to costly imbalances in the electrical grid. A novel multivariate Gaussian regression model helps us to forecast not just the means and variances of the next day's hourly wind speeds, but also their corresponding correlations. This information is used to generate more realistic scenarios of power production and accurate estimates for ramp probabilities.
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Short summary
Atmospheric deserts are air masses originating in the boundary layer of arid and/or elevated regions and therefore generalise elevated mixed layers. They occur often over Europe and can modify atmospheric profiles, influencing the local weather. We investigate whether unusually high temperatures, thunderstorms, and dust events occur more frequently when atmospheric deserts are present. Indeed, all of these extreme weather events are more likely given that atmospheric desert air is present.
Atmospheric deserts are air masses originating in the boundary layer of arid and/or elevated...
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