Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-633-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-633-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
22 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 22 Apr 2026

Understanding biases and changes in European heavy precipitation using dynamical flow precursors

Joshua Oldham-Dorrington, Camille Li, Stefan Sobolowski, and Robin Guillaume-Castel

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Short summary
The future of heavy precipitation in Europe is uncertain, and precipitation can be poorly represented in climate models. To understand model heavy precipitation better we break it into two steps. Firstly, we assess how frequently rainfall-favouring weather patterns occur. Secondly, we assess how often heavy precipitation occurs during those patterns. By doing so, we better understand model bias and forced changes, making current climate models more usable now and easier to improve going forward.
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