Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
23 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 23 Apr 2026

Persistent SST anomaly vs. dynamical ocean model in winter weather forecasts: Global Ensemble Prediction System versions 5 and 6 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Tien-Yiao Hsu, Matthew R. Mazloff, Sarah T. Gille, Hai Lin, K. Andrew Peterson, Rui Sun, Aneesh C. Subramanian, and Luca Delle Monache

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Short summary
We examine the impact of replacing persistent sea surface temperature with a dynamical ocean model on 15 d weather forecasts over the North Pacific and Atlantic during wintertime. With the usage of an uncoupled atmospheric model, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, and ERA5 for validation, we find that latent heat flux bias variance is reduced by 10 %–20 % in the Pacific. This improves forecasts of integrated vapor transport, enhancing the prediction of weather extremes in mid- to high latitudes.
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