Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 23 Apr 2026
| 23 Apr 2026
Persistent SST anomaly vs. dynamical ocean model in winter weather forecasts: Global Ensemble Prediction System versions 5 and 6 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
Matthew R. Mazloff
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
Sarah T. Gille
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
Hai Lin
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Dorval, Québec, Canada
K. Andrew Peterson
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Dorval, Québec, Canada
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
Aneesh C. Subramanian
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States
Luca Delle Monache
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
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Short summary
We examine the impact of replacing persistent sea surface temperature with a dynamical ocean model on 15 d weather forecasts over the North Pacific and Atlantic during wintertime. With the usage of an uncoupled atmospheric model, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, and ERA5 for validation, we find that latent heat flux bias variance is reduced by 10 %–20 % in the Pacific. This improves forecasts of integrated vapor transport, enhancing the prediction of weather extremes in mid- to high latitudes.
We examine the impact of replacing persistent sea surface temperature with a dynamical ocean...
