Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
03 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 03 Jun 2026

Quantifying the tropospheric response to individual sudden stratospheric warmings revealed by an ensemble simulation strategy

Sheena Loeffel, Philip Rupp, Selina Kiefer, Joaquim G. Pinto, Thomas Birner, and Hella Garny

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Short summary
We use a dedicated simulation setup to shed light on the question whether, and why, some sudden stratospheric warming events are more likely than others to develop a surface response. We find that the propensity for downward coupling is unique to each event, and that from day one, the chance of a lower-stratospheric response can be predicted – a key step toward anticipating the surface response, moving beyond 'random' surface outcomes to quantified likelihoods of the ensuing surface response.
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