Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Global monsoon in ICON: the scale-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere monsoons
Praveen K. Pothapakula
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Andreas F. Prein
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Anusha Sunkisala
independent researcher: Zürich, Switzerland
Anurag Dipankar
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Center for Climate System Modeling, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Despite steady improvements in forecasting skill, episodes of low forecast skill, called forecast busts, still persist. Using global ensemble simulations at different grid spacings, we show that coarse-grid simulations fail to resolve key mesoscale diabatic processes, and that errors upscale and propagate downstream, leading to large forecast errors. Fine grid spacing simulations better capture scale interactions in strongly diabatic flow, highlighting the potential of kilometer-scale models.
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Climate models are becoming more detailed and accurate by simulating weather at scales of just a few kilometers. Simulating at km-scale is computationally demanding requiring powerful supercomputers and efficient code. This work presents a refactored dynamical core of a state-of-the-art climate model using a Python-based approach. The refactored code has passed through a sequence of verification and validation demonstrating its usability in performing km-scale global simulations.
Andreas Franz Prein, Praveen Pothapakula, Christian Zeman, Morgane Lalonde, and Marius Rixen
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We produce one of the world's most detailed global weather and climate simulations, spanning 4 years and enabling the direct representation of storms rather than approximations. This allows the capture of dangerous events such as strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and powerful tropical and mid-latitude storms anywhere on Earth. Our results show major improvements over traditional climate models, but also reveal remaining challenges in representing large, organized storm systems in the tropics.
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Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, 2022
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The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1814, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Despite steady improvements in forecasting skill, episodes of low forecast skill, called forecast busts, still persist. Using global ensemble simulations at different grid spacings, we show that coarse-grid simulations fail to resolve key mesoscale diabatic processes, and that errors upscale and propagate downstream, leading to large forecast errors. Fine grid spacing simulations better capture scale interactions in strongly diabatic flow, highlighting the potential of kilometer-scale models.
Samir Pokhrel, Verma Utkarsh, Patita Kalyana Sahoo, Praveen Pothapakula, Anusha Sunkisala, Nishant Gautam, Kolady P. Pribin, Shivamurthy Yashas, Hemant S. Chaudhari, Archana Rai, Hasibur Rahaman, Andreas F. Prein, Anurag Dipankar, and Subodh K. Saha
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We studied how well climate models simulate Indian monsoon rainfall at different time scales, from daily cycles to longer variations. We found that models may match seasonal averages but still fail to capture when and how rainfall occurs. These errors differ over land and ocean and affect overall monsoon patterns. Improving how models represent rainfall processes across scales is essential for better prediction.
Huiying Zhang, Chia Rui Ong, Anurag Dipankar, Ulrike Lohmann, and Jan Henneberger
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We used computer simulations to study cloud seeding. We discovered a 'self-lofting' mechanism whereby, as the seeded ice crystals grow, they release heat, generating an upward air current. This enables the ice plume to rise and spread vertically, even when the surrounding air is sinking. This is why seeded ice survives in unfavourable wind conditions. Our results demonstrate that this internal heating is essential for the effectiveness and validation of weather modification technologies.
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Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Oliver Douglas Levers, Dorien Herremans, Anurag Dipankar, and Lucienne Blessing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-234, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Southeast Asia is a region which is very sensitive to climate change and has numerous islands and peninsulas which are not well resolved within many General Circulation Models (GCMs). Here, deep convolutional encoders are employed to increase the spatial resolution of climate model data (downscaling) and address systematic errors in model outputs (bias correction). Technique and region-specific issues are identified for surface temperature data and compared with other model outputs.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Amelie Hoff, Anika Obermann-Hellhund, Timo Keber, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
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We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
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Short summary
Monsoons provide vital rainfall for billions but are hard to forecast. Using a next-generation climate model, we simulated monsoons at different grid spacings. The model captures key seasonal patterns, but finer grids do not always improve accuracy. They can worsen predictions by overproducing intense rain, as they artificially strengthen weather systems like monsoon lows and waves. Our work shows that smarter model physics is needed for reliable future forecasts and climate projections.
Monsoons provide vital rainfall for billions but are hard to forecast. Using a next-generation...