Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020

Research article 28 Apr 2020

Research article | 28 Apr 2020

Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany

Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner on behalf of the Authors (29 Nov 2019)  Author's response
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (02 Dec 2019) by Stephan Pfahl
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Dec 2019)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (17 Dec 2019)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (20 Dec 2019) by Stephan Pfahl
AR by Christian Barthlott on behalf of the Authors (02 Apr 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Apr 2020) by Stephan Pfahl
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Apr 2020)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (17 Apr 2020) by Stephan Pfahl
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Short summary
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.