Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020

Research article 28 Apr 2020

Research article | 28 Apr 2020

Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany

Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett

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Cited articles

Barrett, A. I., Gray, S. L., Kirshbaum, D. J., Roberts, N. M., Schultz, D. M., and Fairman Jr., J. G.: Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1101–1113, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2409, 2015. a, b
Barrett, A. I., Wellmann, C., Seifert, A., Hoose, C., Vogel, B., and Kunz, M.: One step at a time: How model timestep significantly affects Convection-Permitting simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 641–658, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001418, 2019. a
Barthlott, C. and Hoose, C.: Aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation over central Europe in different weather regimes, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 4247–4264, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0110.1, 2018. a
Barthlott, C., Hauck, C., Schädler, G., Kalthoff, N., and Kottmeier, C.: Soil moisture impacts on convective indices and precipitation over complex terrain, Meteorol. Z., 20, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0216, 2011. a
Barthlott, C., Mühr, B., and Hoose, C.: Sensitivity of the 2014 Pentecost storms over Germany to different model grids and microphysics schemes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 1485–1503, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3019, 2017. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.