Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Christian M. Grams
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Lukas Papritz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
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- Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall J. Dorrington et al. 10.1002/qj.4622
- How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions? S. Lee et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0413.1
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- Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts J. Spaeth & T. Birner 10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022
- Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event J. González‐Alemán et al. 10.1029/2021GL095464
- Connection between Winter East Asia Flow Patterns and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies M. Taguchi 10.3390/atmos15070844
- Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast Errors to Stratospheric Origins E. Kolstad et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1
- The “Polar Vortex” Winter of 2013/2014 J. Cohen et al. 10.1029/2022JD036493
- Effects of extreme stratospheric polar vortex events on near-surface wind gusts across Europe E. Utrabo-Carazo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad67f4
- Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections J. Quinting et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024
- A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes G. Messori & J. Dorrington 10.1029/2023GL104696
- Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events H. Afargan-Gerstman et al. 10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020
- Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America X. Ding et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00845-y
- The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe E. Monnin et al. 10.1002/joc.7426
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- Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter L. Sun et al. 10.1029/2020GL090451
- Impact of Increased Vertical Resolution in WACCM on the Climatology of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings V. Chávez et al. 10.3390/atmos13040546
- Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions R. Wu et al. 10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
- The Autumn-winter Response of Air Temperature to the Blocking Frequency in the Atlantic-Eurasian Sector O. Antokhina et al. 10.3103/S1068373923110018
- Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings T. Reichler & M. Jucker 10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022
- The Linkage of Serial Cyclone Clustering in Western Europe and Weather Regimes in the North Atlantic‐European Region in Boreal Winter S. Hauser et al. 10.1029/2022GL101900
- Downward propagation of the weak stratospheric polar vortex events: the role of the surface arctic oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation J. Ma et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07121-5
- How Well Do We Know the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings? J. Oehrlein et al. 10.1029/2021GL095493
- Northern winter stratospheric polar vortex regimes and their possible influence on the extratropical troposphere Z. Liang et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06494-9
- Regional Extreme Precipitation Events in Wintertime Japan Facilitated by East-Asian Large-Scale Flow Patterns T. Matsunobu et al. 10.2151/sola.2023-033
- Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events M. Schutte et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024
- Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings C. Chang et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0905.1
- Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity D. Krieger et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
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- A Minimal Model to Diagnose the Contribution of the Stratosphere to Tropospheric Forecast Skill A. Charlton‐Perez et al. 10.1029/2021JD035504
- The data processing and analysis methods for stratospheric ozone and planetary wave study Y. Shi et al. 10.33275/1727-7485.2.2022.698
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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a...