Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment

Ngoungue Langue, Cedric G.; Lavaysse, Christophe; Vrac, Mathieu; Peyrillé, Philippe; Flamant, Cyrille

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

Research article

|

15 Sep 2021

Research article |

| 15 Sep 2021

Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment

Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021-supplement

Data sets

ERA5 and MERRA reanalyses Copernicus https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/\#!/home

Seasonal forecasts ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts

Short summary

This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.