Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Occurrence and transition probabilities of omega and high-over-low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Meteorologisches Observatorium Lindenberg – Richard-Aßmann-Observatorium, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany
Annette Müller
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Lisa Schielicke
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Peter Névir
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Henning W. Rust
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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- Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe J. Meyer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022
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- Climatological patterns of heatwaves during winter and spring 2023 and trends for the period 1979–2023 in central South America J. Marengo et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1529082
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- Inconsistent trends between early and late winters in extreme cold events in China from 1980 to 2021 W. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.923228
- Mapping of areas vulnerable to the floods of September 10, 2023 affecting the City of Derna (Libya) and analysis of the disproportionate scale of the disaster recorded K. Hachemi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-025-01187-x
- Summer solstice orchestrates the subcontinental-scale synchrony of mast seeding V. Journé et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01651-w
- Sudden stratospheric warming linked to extreme cold weather in North India: Physical processes and impacts K. Athira et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70020
- Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence C. Suitters et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations O. Linke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023
- Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections S. Springer et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5
- Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change M. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
- A Quick Look at the Atmospheric Circulation Leading to Extreme Weather Phenomena on a Continental Scale F. Couto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101205
- Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe J. Meyer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022
- Long-Range Mineral Dust Transport Events in Mediterranean Countries F. Calastrini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/air2040026
- Winterizing and Use of a Solar Box Cooker on the Island of Crete, Greece J. Lalor et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajac.2025.163003
- Climatological patterns of heatwaves during winter and spring 2023 and trends for the period 1979–2023 in central South America J. Marengo et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1529082
- Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change J. Zeder & E. Fischer https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
- Inconsistent trends between early and late winters in extreme cold events in China from 1980 to 2021 W. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.923228
- Mapping of areas vulnerable to the floods of September 10, 2023 affecting the City of Derna (Libya) and analysis of the disproportionate scale of the disaster recorded K. Hachemi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-025-01187-x
- Summer solstice orchestrates the subcontinental-scale synchrony of mast seeding V. Journé et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01651-w
- Sudden stratospheric warming linked to extreme cold weather in North India: Physical processes and impacts K. Athira et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70020
- Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence C. Suitters et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Sep 2026
Short summary
Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this...