Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2021
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2021

Occurrence and transition probabilities of omega and high-over-low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region

Carola Detring, Annette Müller, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust

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Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
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Short summary
Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
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