Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Research article
 | 
24 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 24 Nov 2022

Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?

Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022-supplement

Data sets

Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/) C. W. Landsea and J. L. Franklin https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1

The ERA5 global reanalysis (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5) H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, P. Bechtold, G. Biavati, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, G. De Chiara, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, M. Diamantakis, R. Dragani, J. Flemming, R. Forbes, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, R. J. Hogan, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, S. Keeley, P. Laloyaux, P. Lopez, C. Lupu, G. Radnoti, P. de Rosnay, I. Rozum, F. Vamborg, S. Villaume, and J. N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data (https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track) K. I. Hodges https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2573:AGMFTA>2.0.CO;2

Model code and software

pyPI (v1.3): Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Calculations in Python (https://github.com/dgilford/tcpyPI) D. M. Gilford https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2351-2021

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Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
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