Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 24 Nov 2022
| 24 Nov 2022
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
Elliott Michael Sainsbury
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK
Reinhard K. H. Schiemann
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading,
Reading, Berkshire, UK
Kevin I. Hodges
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading,
Reading, Berkshire, UK
Alexander J. Baker
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading,
Reading, Berkshire, UK
Len C. Shaffrey
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading,
Reading, Berkshire, UK
Kieran T. Bhatia
North America Peril Advisory, Guy Carpenter, New York, USA
Stella Bourdin
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
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Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
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We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
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Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Stella Bourdin, Sébastien Fromang, William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, and Fabrice Chauvin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6759–6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6759-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6759-2022, 2022
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When studying tropical cyclones in a large dataset, one needs objective and automatic procedures to detect their specific pattern. Applying four different such algorithms to a reconstruction of the climate, we show that the choice of the algorithm is crucial to the climatology obtained. Mainly, the algorithms differ in their sensitivity to weak storms so that they provide different frequencies and durations. We review the different options to consider for the choice of the tracking methodology.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
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In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
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This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
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Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, 2021
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Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Reinhard Schiemann, Panos Athanasiadis, David Barriopedro, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Katja Lohmann, Malcolm J. Roberts, Dmitry V. Sein, Christopher D. Roberts, Laurent Terray, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, 2020
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In blocking situations the westerly atmospheric flow in the midlatitudes is blocked by near-stationary high-pressure systems. Blocking can be associated with extremes such as cold spells and heat waves. Climate models are known to underestimate blocking occurrence. Here, we assess the latest generation of models and find improvements in simulated blocking, partly due to increases in model resolution. These new models are therefore more suitable for studying climate extremes related to blocking.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Alex Baker, Ed W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Andrew Coward, Helene T. Hewitt, Laura C. Jackson, Till Kuhlbrodt, Pierre Mathiot, Christopher D. Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4999–5028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, 2019
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We investigate the role that horizontal grid spacing plays in global coupled climate model simulations, together with examining the efficacy of a new design of simulation experiments that is being used by the community for multi-model comparison. We found that finer grid spacing in both atmosphere and ocean–sea ice models leads to a general reduction in bias compared to observations, and that once eddies in the ocean are resolved, several key climate processes are greatly improved.
Winfried Hoke, Tina Swierczynski, Peter Braesicke, Karin Lochte, Len Shaffrey, Martin Drews, Hilppa Gregow, Ralf Ludwig, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Elisa Palazzi, Gianmaria Sannino, Lars Henrik Smedsrud, and ECRA network
Adv. Geosci., 46, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, 2019
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The European Climate Research Alliance is a bottom-up association of European research institutions helping to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. This article briefly introduces the network's structure and organisation, as well as project management issues and prospects.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, Len C. Shaffrey, Stephanie J. Johnson, Malcolm J. Roberts, Marie-Estelle Demory, Matthew S. Mizielinski, and Jane Strachan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3933–3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018, 2018
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A new generation of global climate models with resolutions between 50 and 10 km is becoming available. Here, we assess how well one such model simulates European precipitation. We find clear improvements in the mean precipitation pattern, and importantly also for extreme daily precipitation over 30 major European river basins. Despite remaining limitations, new high-resolution global models hold great promise for improved climate predictions of European precipitation at impact-relevant scales.
Gillian D. Thornhill, Claire L. Ryder, Eleanor J. Highwood, Len C. Shaffrey, and Ben T. Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5321–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5321-2018, 2018
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We investigated the impact on the regional climate of different amounts of smoke emission (aerosol) from the burning of vegetation in South America using a climate model. We looked at differences between high and low smoke emissions and found impacts from the higher smoke emissions on the amount of cloud cover, solar radiation reaching the surface, wind patterns and rainfall. This means the local climate may be affected if there is more deforestation and more smoke from burning of vegetation.
K. Emma Knowland, Ruth M. Doherty, Kevin I. Hodges, and Lesley E. Ott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12421–12447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, 2017
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First study to our knowledge to quantify the influence extratropical cyclones have on the temporal variability of springtime surface ozone (O3) measured on the west coast of Europe when cyclones are nearby. We show passing cyclones have a discernible influence on surface O3 concentrations. In-depth findings from four case studies, using a combination of reanalyses and a modeled tracer, demonstrate there are several transport pathways before O3-rich air eventually reaches the surface.
J. F. Roberts, A. J. Champion, L. C. Dawkins, K. I. Hodges, L. C. Shaffrey, D. B. Stephenson, M. A. Stringer, H. E. Thornton, and B. D. Youngman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014
M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, J. Strachan, T. Edwards, A. Stephens, B. N. Lawrence, M. Pritchard, P. Chiu, A. Iwi, J. Churchill, C. del Cano Novales, J. Kettleborough, W. Roseblade, P. Selwood, M. Foster, M. Glover, and A. Malcolm
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1629–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1629-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1629-2014, 2014
L. Guo, E. J. Highwood, L. C. Shaffrey, and A. G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1521–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013, 2013
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1153–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1153-2024, 2024
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A simple model is used to study the relation between small-scale convection and large-scale variability in the tropics arising from the coupling between moisture and dynamics. In the model, moisture preferentially lies at either moist or dry states, which merge to form large-scale aggregated regions. On an equatorial β plane, these aggregated regions are localised at the Equator and propagate zonally. This forms an intermediate model between past simpler models and general circulation models.
Nicolás García-Lee, Claudio Bravo, Álvaro Gónzalez-Reyes, and Piero Mardones
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, 2024
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Ting-Yu Cha and Michael M. Bell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, 2024
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Our study investigates the dynamics of polygonal eyewall structures observed in intensifying hurricanes like Michael (2018) by using a simplified modeling approach. We develop a two-layer model to simulate the interactions between the free atmosphere and boundary layer to demonstrate the importance of different physical mechanisms in the intensification process. This simplified model offers insights into the interactions between dynamics and convection during hurricane intensification.
Aleena Moolakkunnel Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1818, 2024
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Models have biases in SAO representation, primarily due to lack of strong enough eastward wave forcing. We investigated if this bias arises from increased wave absorption in low-mid stratosphere due to circulation biases. Using model experiments, we found that removing biases in lower altitudes improve the SAO, but a significant bias remains. Thus, modifications to gravity wave parametrisation is required to improve the modelled SAO, potentially leading to improved predictability of SSW.
Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur and Jai Sukhatme
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 839–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, 2024
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We analyze the present and future states of the tropical upper troposphere. Observations and climate model simulations suggest that interactions between disparate families of waves and the mean flow maintain present-day upper-level winds, and each component undergoes complex changes due to global warming. While the net east–west flow of the atmosphere may remain unaltered, this study indicates robust changes to local circulations that may influence tropical precipitation and regional climate.
Gill M. Martin and José M. Rodríguez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, 2024
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Using sensitivity experiments, we show that model errors developing in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall errors through their effects on the western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure region and the winds and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean, exacerbated by local coupled feedback. Such information will inform future model developments aimed at improving model predictions for the ASM.
Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, 2024
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It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating the use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate timescales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 511–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, 2024
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Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner, A. P. Dimri, Ghulam Jeelani, Pooja, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Forest Cannon, T. Arulalan, M. S. Shekhar, T. P. Sabin, and Eliza Palazzi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-820, 2024
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Western disturbances (WDs) are storms that predominantly affect north India and Pakistan during the winter months, where they play an important role in regional water security, but can also bring a range of natural hazards. In this review, we summarise recent literature across a range of topics: their structure and lifecycle, precipitation and impacts, interactions with large-scale weather patterns, representation in models, how well they are forecast, and their response to changes in climate.
Kieran M. R. Hunt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, 2024
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This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Franco Molteni, Fred Kucharski, and Riccardo Farneti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 293–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, 2024
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We describe some new features of an intermediate-complexity coupled model, including a three-layer thermodynamic ocean model suitable to explore the extratropical response to tropical ocean variability. We present results on the model climatology and show that important features of interdecadal and interannual variability are realistically simulated in a
pacemakercoupled ensemble of 70-year runs, where portions of the tropical Indo-Pacific are constrained to follow the observed variability.
Molly E. Menzel, Darryn W. Waugh, Zheng Wu, and Thomas Reichler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, 2024
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Recent work exploring the tropical atmospheric circulation response to climate change has revealed a disconnect in the latitudinal location of two features, the subtropical jet and the Hadley cell edge. Here, we investigate if the surprising result from coupled climate model and meteorological reanalysis output is consistent across model complexity.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
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A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, 2023
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This study examines quasi-periodic variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales and related physics using a recently developed time series analysis tool. We find that wind stress in the west Pacific and recharge–discharge of ocean heat content are likely related to each other on ~1.5–4.5-year timescales (but not on others) and dominate variability in sea surface temperatures on those timescales. This may have further implications for climate models and long-term prediction.
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, 2023
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We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The vortex is identified with high humidity through the atmosphere and has heaviest rainfall on its northern flank. Simulations represent circulation and rainfall accumulation well. The low-level Borneo vortex is coupled with a higher-level wave, which moves westwards along a layer with a sharp vertical gradient in moisture. Vortex growth occurs through mechanisms usually considered outside the tropics.
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, 2023
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Variability in the tropics can influence weather over Europe. This study evaluates a summertime connection between the two. It shows that strongly opposing west Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred more frequently since 1980, likely due to a combination of long-term warming in the west Pacific and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Three to six weeks later, the distribution of hot and cold airmasses over Europe is affected.
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, 2023
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It is not yet clear which variations in broader atmospheric conditions of the West African monsoon may lead to mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurrences in southern West Africa (SWA). In this study, we identified nine different weather patterns and categorized them as dry-, transition-, or monsoon-season types using a method called self-organizing maps (SOMs). It was revealed that a warmer Sahel region can create favourable conditions for MCS formation in SWA.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
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Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
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Using ensemble members from the ERA5 reanalysis, the most widely used method for estimating tropical-width trends, the meridional stream function, was found to have large error, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the summer, because of weak gradients at the tropical edge and poor data quality. Another method, using the latitude where the surface wind switches from westerly to easterly, was found to have lower error due to better-observed data.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
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As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
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We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 249–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, 2023
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Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute for the Global Observing System, showing an overall positive impact on numerical weather prediction forecasts. This study highlights atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the midlatitude waveguide.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Andrew G. Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1341–1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, 2022
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More than half of India's summer monsoon rainfall arises from low-pressure systems: storms originating over the Bay of Bengal. In observation-based data, we examine how the generation and pathway of these storms are changed by the
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation– the chief means of large-scale control on the monsoon at timescales of a few weeks. Our study offers new insights for useful prediction of these storms, important for both water resources planning and disaster early warning.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
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Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Matic Pikovnik, Žiga Zaplotnik, Lina Boljka, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, 2022
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Potential future changes in the Hadley cells (HCs), either to their strength or their meridional extent, will profoundly impact the global distribution of precipitation. Therefore, to objectively evaluate and inter-compare past and future changes in the overall HC strength between different studies, a unified metric is required. The study proposes two new metrics, which alleviate the spatial inhomogeneities of the HC strength trend.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
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In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, 2021
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Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Anantha Aiyyer and Terrell Wade
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, 2021
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We diagnose the mean circulations in the extratropics that are associated with rapid changes in the tropical storm storm speeds in the Atlantic. We show that rapid acceleration and deceleration are associated with distinct phasing between the tropical cyclone and weather waves of the extratropics. Over the past 5 decades, rapid acceleration and deceleration of tropical cyclones have reduced in magnitude. This might be related to the poleward shift and weakening of these extratropical waves.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
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This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Andrea M. Jenney, David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, 2021
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Storm activity in the tropics is one of the key phenomena that provide weather predictability on an extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The influence of tropical storminess on places like North America is sensitive to the overall average state of the climate system. In this study, we try to unpack the reasons why climate models do not agree on how the influence of these storms on weather over the North Pacific and North America will change in the future.
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
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We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
Joshua White and Anantha Aiyyer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 311–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, 2021
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Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
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The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
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The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
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We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Benjamin A. Stephens and Charles S. Jackson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, 2020
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We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM) of the tropical atmosphere. Multiple equilibria have been observed before in SCMs, but here we analyze actual bifurcations. We attribute the transitions to a sudden loss of evaporative cooling in the lower column due to nonlinearities in microphysics. This study may have implications for atmospheric dynamics more broadly but also for understanding abrupt transitions in paleoclimate.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 349–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, 2020
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The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an important element of Latin American agriculture. Here we use state-of-the-art climate models from the UK Met Office in different configurations to analyse the performance of these models in the American monsoon. Resolution is found to be a key factor to improve monsoon representation, whereas integrated chemistry does not improve the simulated monsoon rainfall.
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Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying...
