Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022
Research article
 | 
24 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 24 Nov 2022

Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?

Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin

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Cited articles

Arnault, J. and Roux, F.: Characteristics of African easterly waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Cape Verde Islands region in July–August–September of 2004-=2008, Atmos. Res., 100, 61–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.028, 2011. 
Avila, L. A. and Cangialosi, J.: Tropical Cyclone Report – Hurricane Irene, National Hurricane Center, 21–28, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf (last access: 16 November 2022), 2011. 
Baatsen, M., Haarsma, R. J., Van Delden, A. J., and de Vries, H.: Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean, Clim. Dynam., 45, 949–964, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8, 2015. 
Baker, A., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K. I., Seddon, J., Vanniere, B., Haarsma, R. J., Schiemann, R. K. H., Kapetanakis, D., Tourigny, E., Lohmann, K., Roberts, C. D., and Terray, L.: Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models, J. Climate, 35, 5283–5306, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0801.1, 2022. 
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Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.