Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Research article
24 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 24 Nov 2022

Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?

Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin

Related authors

The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary
Exploring the vertical extent and deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700,,, 2023
Short summary
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340,,, 2022
Short summary
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307,,, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Replicating the Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitude disconnect in idealized atmospheric models
Molly E. Menzel, Darryn W. Waugh, Zheng Wu, and Thomas Reichler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 251–261,,, 2024
Short summary
Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85,,, 2024
Short summary
Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment and horizontal resolution in tropical aquachannel experiments
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134,,, 2023
Short summary
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087–1109,,, 2023
Short summary
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Arnault, J. and Roux, F.: Characteristics of African easterly waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Cape Verde Islands region in July–August–September of 2004-=2008, Atmos. Res., 100, 61–82,, 2011. 
Avila, L. A. and Cangialosi, J.: Tropical Cyclone Report – Hurricane Irene, National Hurricane Center, 21–28, (last access: 16 November 2022), 2011. 
Baatsen, M., Haarsma, R. J., Van Delden, A. J., and de Vries, H.: Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean, Clim. Dynam., 45, 949–964,, 2015. 
Baker, A., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K. I., Seddon, J., Vanniere, B., Haarsma, R. J., Schiemann, R. K. H., Kapetanakis, D., Tourigny, E., Lohmann, K., Roberts, C. D., and Terray, L.: Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models, J. Climate, 35, 5283–5306,, 2022. 
Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.