Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 20 Apr 2022
| 20 Apr 2022
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes
Joshua Dorrington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Kristian Strommen
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Federico Fabiano
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Bologna, Italy
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- On the Effect of Classical Versus Geopotential-jet Weather Regimes on Wintertime Rainfall Variability: Case of Morocco R. Ouaraini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00604-3
- On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics J. Dorrington & T. Palmer https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023
- A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes G. Messori & J. Dorrington https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104696
- Response of Northern Hemisphere Rossby wave breaking to changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover S. Tahvonen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025
- Summertime Arctic and North Atlantic–Eurasian circulation regimes under climate change J. Müller et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1895-2025
- Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders F. Spuler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
- Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026
- Predictability assessment of cold–wet–windy pan-Atlantic extremes M. Krouma & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100903
- A life cycle definition of year-round weather regimes in the North Atlantic European region C. Grams https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1641-2026
- Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall J. Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4622
- Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track F. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026
- CMIP6 Models Trend Toward Less Persistent European Blocking Regimes in a Warming Climate J. Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100811
- Unprecedented daily winter extremes for the UK energy sector B. Hutchins et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae5510
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107161
- On the role of AMOC weakening in shaping wintertime Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation A. Vacca et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07747-z
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- On the Effect of Classical Versus Geopotential-jet Weather Regimes on Wintertime Rainfall Variability: Case of Morocco R. Ouaraini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00604-3
- On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics J. Dorrington & T. Palmer https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023
- A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes G. Messori & J. Dorrington https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104696
- Response of Northern Hemisphere Rossby wave breaking to changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover S. Tahvonen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025
- Summertime Arctic and North Atlantic–Eurasian circulation regimes under climate change J. Müller et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1895-2025
- Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders F. Spuler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-995-2025
- Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026
- Predictability assessment of cold–wet–windy pan-Atlantic extremes M. Krouma & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100903
- A life cycle definition of year-round weather regimes in the North Atlantic European region C. Grams https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1641-2026
- Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall J. Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4622
- Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track F. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026
- CMIP6 Models Trend Toward Less Persistent European Blocking Regimes in a Warming Climate J. Dorrington et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100811
- Unprecedented daily winter extremes for the UK energy sector B. Hutchins et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae5510
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107161
- On the role of AMOC weakening in shaping wintertime Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation A. Vacca et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07747-z
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 20 Sep 2026
Short summary
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather...
