Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 20 Apr 2022
| 20 Apr 2022
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes
Joshua Dorrington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Kristian Strommen
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Federico Fabiano
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Bologna, Italy
Related authors
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Joshua Dorrington and Tim Palmer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric models often include random forcings, which aim to replicate the impact of processes too small to be resolved. Recent results in simple atmospheric models suggest that this random forcing can actually stabilise certain slow-varying aspects of the system, which could provide a path for resolving known errors in our models. We use randomly forced simulations of a
toychaotic system and theoretical arguments to explain why this strange effect occurs – at least in simple models.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna L. Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-527-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-527-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Even after the concentration of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the climate will continue to adapt, seeking a new equilibrium. We study this long-term stabilization through a set of 1000-year simulations, obtained by suddenly "freezing" the atmospheric composition at different levels. If frozen at the current state, global warming surpasses 3° in the long term with our model. We then study how climate impacts will change after various centuries and how the deep ocean will warm.
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.
Stefano Della Fera, Federico Fabiano, Piera Raspollini, Marco Ridolfi, Ugo Cortesi, Flavio Barbara, and Jost von Hardenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term comparison between observed and simulated outgoing longwave radiances represents a strict test to evaluate climate model performance. In this work, 9 years of synthetic spectrally resolved radiances, simulated online on the basis of the atmospheric fields predicted by the EC-Earth global climate model (v3.3.3) in clear-sky conditions, are compared to IASI spectral radiance climatology in order to detect model biases in temperature and humidity at different atmospheric levels.
Joshua Dorrington and Tim Palmer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric models often include random forcings, which aim to replicate the impact of processes too small to be resolved. Recent results in simple atmospheric models suggest that this random forcing can actually stabilise certain slow-varying aspects of the system, which could provide a path for resolving known errors in our models. We use randomly forced simulations of a
toychaotic system and theoretical arguments to explain why this strange effect occurs – at least in simple models.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Kristian Strommen, Stephan Juricke, and Fenwick Cooper
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 951–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data suggest that the extent of Arctic sea ice influences mid-latitude winter weather. However, climate models generally fail to reproduce this link, making it unclear if models are missing something or if the observed link is just a coincidence. We show that if one explicitly represents the effect of unresolved sea ice variability in a climate model, then it is able to reproduce this link. This implies that the link may be real but that many models simply fail to simulate it.
Núria Pérez-Zanón, Louis-Philippe Caron, Silvia Terzago, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Llorenç Lledó, Nicolau Manubens, Emmanuel Roulin, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Lauriane Batté, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Susana Corti, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Marta Domínguez, Federico Fabiano, Ignazio Giuntoli, Jost von Hardenberg, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Verónica Torralba, and Deborah Verfaillie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6115–6142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
CSTools (short for Climate Service Tools) is an R package that contains process-based methods for climate forecast calibration, bias correction, statistical and stochastic downscaling, optimal forecast combination, and multivariate verification, as well as basic and advanced tools to obtain tailored products. In addition to describing the structure and methods in the package, we also present three use cases to illustrate the seasonal climate forecast post-processing for specific purposes.
Paolo Davini, Federico Fabiano, and Irina Sandu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In climate models, improvements obtained in the winter mid-latitude circulation following horizontal resolution increase are mainly caused by the more detailed representation of the mean orography. A high-resolution climate model with low-resolution orography might underperform compared to a low-resolution model with low-resolution orography. The absence of proper model tuning at high resolution is considered the potential reason behind such lack of improvements.
Paolo Ghinassi, Federico Fabiano, and Susanna Corti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 209–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we examine the ability of global climate models in representing the atmospheric circulation in the upper troposphere, focusing on the eventual benefits of an increased horizontal resolution. Our results confirm that a higher horizontal resolution has a positive impact, especially in those models in which the resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and the ocean, whereas when the resolution is increased only in the atmosphere no substantial improvements are found.
Federico Fabiano, Virna L. Meccia, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ghinassi, and Susanna Corti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 163–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming not only affects the mean state of the climate (i.e. a warmer world) but also its variability. Here we analyze a set of future climate scenarios and show how some configurations of the wintertime atmospheric flow will become more frequent and persistent under continued greenhouse forcing. For example, over Europe, models predict an increase in the NAO+ regime which drives intense precipitation in northern Europe and the British Isles and dry conditions over the Mediterranean.
Rein Haarsma, Mario Acosta, Rena Bakhshi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Susanna Corti, Paolo Davini, Eleftheria Exarchou, Federico Fabiano, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Javier García-Serrano, Jost von Hardenberg, Torben Koenigk, Xavier Levine, Virna Loana Meccia, Twan van Noije, Gijs van den Oord, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mario Rodrigo, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Etienne Tourigny, Shiyu Wang, Michiel van Weele, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3507–3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP is an international coordinated CMIP6 effort to investigate the improvement in climate modeling caused by an increase in horizontal resolution. This paper describes EC-Earth3P-(HR), which has been developed for HighResMIP. First analyses reveal that increasing resolution does improve certain aspects of the simulated climate but that many other biases still continue, possibly related to phenomena that are still not yet resolved and need to be parameterized.
Kristian Strommen, Hannah M. Christensen, Dave MacLeod, Stephan Juricke, and Tim N. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Due to computational limitations, climate models cannot fully resolve the laws of physics below a certain scale – a large source of errors and uncertainty. Stochastic schemes aim to account for this by randomly sampling the possible unresolved states. We develop new stochastic schemes for the EC-Earth climate model and evaluate their impact on model performance. While several benefits are found, the impact is sometimes too strong, suggesting such schemes must be carefully calibrated before use.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A new characterisation of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using two-dimensional moment analysis
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of medicane Ianos
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3
Spatio-temporal filtering of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems—a review
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
How a warmer Mediterranean preconditions the upper-level environment for the development of Medicane Ianos
Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Thunderstorm environments in Europe
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: a Lagrangian analysis
Signatures of Eurasian heat waves in global Rossby wave spectra
Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt
Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1103–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1423, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify that the occurrence of strong synoptic storms contributes about 20 % to the uncertainty in subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over Northern Europe. We further show that the storm activity over the Atlantic is reduced and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in Northern European forecast uncertainty.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego S. Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emmanouil Flaounas, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, and Claudio Sanchez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1105, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high impact but poorly predicted medicane ("Mediterranean hurricane"). A community effort of numerical modeling provides robust results to improve its prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controls the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help understanding the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-624, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heatwaves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-597, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds, called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2678, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This review provides a historic overview of research on how diabatic processes influence extratropical weather systems. We highlight that the combination of complementary research approaches – field experiments, diagnostics, numerical model experiments, potential vorticity theory, and consideration of climate change – was essential for reaching a new level of understanding where the interplay of dry dynamics with diabatic processes is considered as central to the field.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Claudio Sanchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonte, Florian Pantillon, Segolene Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2431, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone which led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of medicane Ianos, with the use of the MetOffice weather model. There is a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generate a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble creates the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Cited articles
Anstey, J. A., Davini, P., Gray, L. J., Woollings, T. J., Butchart, N.,
Cagnazzo, C., Christiansen, B., Hardiman, S. C., Osprey, S. M., and Yang, S.:
Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases
and the role of resolution, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 3956–3971, https://doi.org/10.1002/JGRD.50231, 2013. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W., and
Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO,
NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 1–10, 2020. a
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., and Mbengue, C.: Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to
Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM, J. Climate, 30, 6413–6431,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0864.1, 2017. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous
Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1063315,
2001. a
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Testing a theory for the effect of latitude
on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 37, L15801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044144, 2010. a, b
Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their
Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a, b, c
Barnes, E. A. and Screen, J. A.: The impact of Arctic warming on the
midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?, WIREs Clim Change, 6, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337, 2015. a, b
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Lupo, A. R., and Hernández,
E.: A Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Blocking, J. Climate, 19,
1042–1063, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3678.1, 2006. a
Baur, F., Hess, P., and Nagel, H.: Kalendar der Grosswetterlagen Europas
1881–1939, Bad Homburg (DWD), 1944. a
Beerli, R. and Grams, C. M.: Stratospheric modulation of the large-scale
circulation in the Atlantic-European region and its implications for surface
weather events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145,
3732–3750, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3653, 2019. a, b
Bellucci, A., Athanasiadis, P. J., Scoccimarro, E., Ruggieri, P., Gualdi, S.,
Fedele, G., Haarsma, R. J., Garcia-Serrano, J., Castrillo, M., Putrahasan,
D., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Moine, M. P., Roberts, C. D., Roberts, M. J., Seddon,
J., and Vidale, P. L.: Air-Sea interaction over the Gulf Stream in an
ensemble of HighResMIP present climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 56,
2093–2111, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05573-z, 2021. a, b
Bowie, E. H. and Weightman, R. H.: Types of storms of the United States and
their average movements, US Government Printing Office, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24520675?seq=1 (last access: 14 April 2022), 1914. a
Brunner, L., Schaller, N., Anstey, J., Sillmann, J., and Steiner, A. K.:
Dependence of Present and Future European Temperature Extremes on the
Location of Atmospheric Blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
6311–6320, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077837, 2018. a
Butchart, N., Anstey, J. A., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., McLandress, C., Bushell, A. C., Kawatani, Y., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T. N., Andrews, M., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Dobrynin, M., Garcia, R. R., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gray, L. J., Holt, L., Kerzenmacher, T., Naoe, H., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J. H., Scaife, A. A., Schenzinger, V., Serva, F., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K., and Yukimoto, S.: Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018. a
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation
and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286, 2008. a, b
Cattiaux, J., Douville, H., and Peings, Y.: European temperatures in CMIP5:
origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties, Clim. Dynam.,
41, 2889–2907, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-013-1731-Y, 2013. a, b
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ferranti, L., and Lee, R. W.: The influence of the
stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1140–1151, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3280,
2018. a, b
Charney, J. G. and DeVore, J. G.: Multiple Flow Equilibria in the Atmosphere
and Blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1205–1216,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1205:MFEITA>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a, b
Cherchi, A., Fogli, P. G., Lovato, T., Peano, D., Iovino, D., Gualdi, S.,
Masina, S., Scoccimarro, E., Materia, S., Bellucci, A., and Navarra, A.:
Global Mean Climate and Main Patterns of Variability in the CMCC-CM2 Coupled
Model, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 11, 185–209,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001369, 2019. a
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J.,
Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P.,
Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman,
P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri,
M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L.,
Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis
Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28,
https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.776, 2011. a
Cortesi, N., Torralba, V., González-Reviriego, N., Soret, A., and
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Characterization of European wind speed variability
using weather regimes, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4961–4976,
https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-019-04839-5, 2019. a
Corti, S., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Signature of recent climate change
in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, Nature, 398,
799–802, https://doi.org/10.1038/19745, 1999. a
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking
representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements?,
J. Climate, 29, 8823–8840, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1, 2016. a
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere
atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate, J. Climate, 33, 10021–10038, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1, 2020. a, b
Davini, P., Fabiano, F., and Sandu, I.: Orographic resolution driving the improvements associated with horizontal resolution increase in the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitudes, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-51, in review, 2021. a
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., Gualdi, S., and Navarra, A.: Bidimensional
diagnostics, variability, and trends of northern hemisphere blocking,
J. Climate, 25, 6496–6509, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00032.1, 2012. a
Dawson, A.: eofs: A Library for EOF Analysis of Meteorological, Oceanographic,
and Climate Data, J. Open Res. Softw., 4, 14,
https://doi.org/10.5334/JORS.122, 2016. a
Dawson, A. and Palmer, T. N.: Simulating weather regimes: impact of model
resolution and stochastic parameterization, Clim. Dynam., 44,
2177–2193, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2238-x, 2015. a
Delworth, T. L. and Zeng, F.: The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on
climate through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation, J. Climate, 29, 941–962,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0396.1, 2016. a
Delworth, T. L., Zeng, F., Zhang, L., Zhang, R., Vecchia, G. A., and Yang, X.:
The central role of ocean dynamics in connecting the North Atlantic
oscillation to the extratropical component of the Atlantic multidecadal
oscillation, J. Climate, 30, 3789–3805,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0358.1, 2017. a
Deser, C., Tomas, R. A., and Peng, S.: The transient atmospheric circulation
response to North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies, J. Climate, 20, 4751–4767,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4278.1, 2007. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Grams, C. M., and Papritz, L.: The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020. a, b
Dorrington, J.: On the variability and forced response of atmospheric regime
systems, PhD thesis, University of Oxford,
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5567d432-e429-4b7c-838a-aea4014d2923 (last access: 14 April 2022),
2021. a
Dorrington, J. and Fabiano, F.: Reanalysis and Model regime datasets, regression metrics, and example analysis code, GitHub [data set], https://github.com/joshdorrington/GJR_hist_climate_data (last access: 14 April 2022), 2022. a
Dorrington, J. and Strommen, K. J.: Jet Speed Variability Obscures
Euro-Atlantic Regime Structure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087907, 2020. a, b
Driouech, F., Déqué, M., and Sánchez-Gómez, E.:
Weather regimes–Moroccan precipitation link in a regional climate change
simulation, Global Planet. Change, 72, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2010.03.004, 2010. a
Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hermanson, L., Eade, R., Robinson, N.,
Andrews, M., and Knight, J.: Skilful predictions of the winter North
Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead, Nat. Geosci., 9,
809–814, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2824, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fabiano, F., Christensen, H. M., Strommen, K., Athanasiadis, P., Baker, A.,
Schiemann, R., and Corti, S.: Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA
coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on
model performance, Clim. Dynam., 54, 5031–5048, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05271-w, 2020. a, b, c, d
Fabiano, F., Meccia, V. L., Davini, P., Ghinassi, P., and Corti, S.: A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 163–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Falkena, S. K., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Detection
of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe
using atmospheric circulation regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148, 434–453, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.4213, 2021. a
Faranda, D., Masato, G., Moloney, N., Sato, Y., Daviaud, F., Dubrulle, B., and
Yiou, P.: The switching between zonal and blocked mid-latitude atmospheric
circulation: a dynamical system perspective, Clim. Dynam., 47,
1587–1599, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2921-6, 2016. a
Ferranti, L., Corti, S., and Janousek, M.: Flow-dependent verification of the
ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 141, 916–924, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2411, 2015. a, b, c
Frame, T. H. A., Methven, J., Gray, S. L., and Ambaum, M. H. P.:
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2411–2416, https://doi.org/10.1002/GRL.50454, 2013. a
Franzke, C., Woollings, T., and Martius, O.: Persistent Circulation Regimes
and Preferred Regime Transitions in the North Atlantic, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2809–2825, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-046.1, 2011. a
Garrido-Perez, J. M., Ordóñez, C., Barriopedro, D.,
García-Herrera, R., and Paredes, D.: Impact of weather regimes on wind
power variability in western Europe, Appl. Energ.,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114731, 2020. a
Ghil, M.: Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond, 1st edn., vol. 6, edited by: Chang, C.-P., Ghil, M., Latif, M., and Wallace, J. M., World Scientific
Publ. Co./Imperial College Press, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814579933_0002, 2015. a
Gold, E.: Aids to forecasting: types of pressure distribution, Gt. Brit.
Meteorological office, Geophysical memoirs, no. 16, Meteorological office,
Neill & co., Edinburgh, London, 1920. a
Grams, C. M., Beerli, R., Pfenninger, S., Staffell, I., and Wernli, H.:
Balancing Europe's wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by
weather regimes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 557–562,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3338, 2017. a, b
Gray, L. J., Anstey, J. A., Kawatani, Y., Lu, H., Osprey, S., and Schenzinger, V.: Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8227–8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8227-2018, 2018. a
Gutjahr, O., Putrasahan, D., Lohmann, K., Jungclaus, J. H., von Storch, J.-S., Brüggemann, N., Haak, H., and Stössel, A.: Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019. a
Haarsma, R., Acosta, M., Bakhshi, R., Bretonnière, P.-A., Caron, L.-P., Castrillo, M., Corti, S., Davini, P., Exarchou, E., Fabiano, F., Fladrich, U., Fuentes Franco, R., García-Serrano, J., von Hardenberg, J., Koenigk, T., Levine, X., Meccia, V. L., van Noije, T., van den Oord, G., Palmeiro, F. M., Rodrigo, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Tourigny, E., Wang, S., van Weele, M., and Wyser, K.: HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3507–3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, 2020. a
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016. a
Hannachi, A., Straus, D. M., Franzke, C. L. E., Corti, S., and Woollings, T.:
Low-frequency nonlinearity and regime behavior in the Northern Hemisphere
extratropical atmosphere, Rev. Geophys., 55, 199–234,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000509, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee,
D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M.,
Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E.,
Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti,
G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut,
J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinting, J. F., Pinto, J. G., and Grams, C. M.: Do
Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095574, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095574, 2021. a
Hoerl, A. E. and Kennard, R. W.: Ridge Regression: Biased Estimation for
Nonorthogonal Problems, Technometrics, 12, 55–67,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1970.10488634, 1970. a
Hoskins, B. J., James, I. N., and White, G. H.: The shape, propagation and
mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems., J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1595–1612 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1595:TSPAMF>2.0.CO;2,
1983. a
Huth, R.: A circulation classification scheme applicable in GCM studies,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 67, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1007/S007040070012, 2000. a
Jiménez-Esteve, B. and Domeisen, D. I.: The tropospheric pathway of the
ENSO-North Atlantic teleconnection, J. Climate, 31, 4563–4584,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0716.1, 2018. a
Johnson, S. J., Stockdale, T. N., Ferranti, L., Balmaseda, M. A., Molteni, F., Magnusson, L., Tietsche, S., Decremer, D., Weisheimer, A., Balsamo, G., Keeley, S. P. E., Mogensen, K., Zuo, H., and Monge-Sanz, B. M.: SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, 2019. a
Kidston, J., Scaife, A. A., Hardiman, S. C., Mitchell, D. M., Butchart, N.,
Baldwin, M. P., and Gray, L. J.: Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet
streams, storm tracks and surface weather, Nat. Geosci., 8, 433–440,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2424, 2015. a
Knutti, R., Masson, D., and Gettelman, A.: Climate model genealogy: Generation
CMIP5 and how we got there, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1194–1199,
https://doi.org/10.1002/GRL.50256, 2013. a
Laloyaux, P., de Boisseson, E., Balmaseda, M., Bidlot, J. R., Broennimann, S.,
Buizza, R., Dalhgren, P., Dee, D., Haimberger, L., Hersbach, H., Kosaka, Y.,
Martin, M., Poli, P., Rayner, N., Rustemeier, E., and Schepers, D.:
CERA-20C: A Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 10, 1172–1195,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001273, 2018. a
Lavaysse, C., Vogt, J., Toreti, A., Carrera, M. L., and Pappenberger, F.: On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018. a
Legras, B. and Ghil, M.: Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in
atmospheric predictability., J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 433–471,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0433:PABAVI>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Li, C. and Wettstein, J. J.: Thermally driven and eddy-driven jet variability
in reanalysis, J. Climate, 25, 1587–1596,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00145.1, 2012. a
Lorenz, D. J. and Hartmann, D. L.: Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Northern
Hemisphere winter, J. Climate, 16, 1212–1227, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1212:EFFITN>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Madonna, E., Li, C., Grams, C. M., and Woollings, T.: The link between
eddy-driven jet variability and weather regimes in the North
Atlantic-European sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2960–2972, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3155, 2017. a, b
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T. J.: Can the Frequency of
Blocking Be Described by a Red Noise Process?, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2143–2149, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2907.1, 2009. a
Matsueda, M. and Palmer, T. N.: Estimates of flow-dependent predictability of
wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1012–1027,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3265, 2018. a, b
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vautard, R., Legras, B., Michelangeli, P.-A., Vautard, R.,
and Legras, B.: Weather Regimes: Recurrence and Quasi Stationarity, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237–1256,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1237:WRRAQS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Molteni, F. and Kucharski, F.: A heuristic dynamical model of the North
Atlantic Oscillation with a Lorenz-type chaotic attractor, Clim. Dynam.,
52, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4509-4, 2019. a
Nakamura, N. and Huang, C. S. Y.: Atmospheric blocking as a traffic jam in the
jet stream, Science, 361, 42–47, https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.AAT0721, 2018. a, b
O'Reilly, C. H., Minobe, S., and Kuwano-Yoshida, A.: The influence of the Gulf
Stream on wintertime European blocking, Clim. Dynam., 47, 1545–1567,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2919-0, 2016. a
Palmer, T. N.: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction,
J. Climate, 12, 575–591,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0575:ANDPOC>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b
Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L., and
Shaffrey, L.: Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic
Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
10159–10167, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402, 2019. a, b
Pfahl, S., Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Grams, C. M., and Wernli, H.:
Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric
blocking, Nat. Geosci., 8, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2487,
2015. a
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D. P., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A. J., Vitart, F.,
Laloyaux, P., Tan, D. G. H., Peubey, C., Thépaut, J.-N.,
Trémolet, Y., Hólm, E. V., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., Fisher, M.,
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D. P., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A. J., Vitart,
F., Laloyaux, P., Tan, D. G. H., Peubey, C., Thépaut, J.-N.,
Trémolet, Y., Hólm, E. V., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., and Fisher,
M.: ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 29, 4083–4097, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1, 2016. a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K.,
Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S.,
Schmidli, J., Van Lipzig, N. P., and Leung, R.: A review on regional
convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and
challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475,
2015. a
Richter, J. H., Anstey, J. A., Butchart, N., Kawatani, Y., Meehl, G. A.,
Osprey, S., and Simpson, I. R.: Progress in Simulating the Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation in CMIP Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
125, e2019JD032362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032362, 2020. a
Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., Molteni, F., Boussetta, S., Mayer, M., and Keeley, S. P. E.: Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3681–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018, 2018. a
Robin, Y., Yiou, P., and Naveau, P.: Detecting changes in forced climate attractors with Wasserstein distance, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-393-2017, 2017. a
Robinson, W. A.: Does eddy feedback sustain variability in the zonal index?,
J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3556–3569,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3556:DEFSVI>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Suárez-Moreno, R., Ayarzagüena, B.,
López-Parages, J., Gómara, I., Villamayor, J., Mohino, E.,
Losada, T., and Castaño-Tierno, A.: A Review of ENSO Influence on the
North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal, Atmosphere, 7, 87,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7070087, 2016. a
Rossby, C. G.: Planetary flow patterns in the atmosphere, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 66, 68–87,
https://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/gv219/classics.d/Rossby-planflowQJ40.pdf (last access: 14 April 2022),
1940. a
Scaife, A. A., Camp, J., Comer, R., Davis, P., Dunstone, N., Gordon, M.,
MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Nie, Y., Ren, H.-L., Roberts, M., Robinson, W.,
Smith, D., and Vidale, P. L.: Does increased atmospheric resolution improve
seasonal climate predictions?, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 20, e922,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ASL.922, 2019. a
Schiemann, R., Athanasiadis, P., Barriopedro, D., Doblas-Reyes, F., Lohmann, K., Roberts, M. J., Sein, D. V., Roberts, C. D., Terray, L., and Vidale, P. L.: Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, 2020. a
Sein, D. V., Koldunov, N. V., Danilov, S., Wang, Q., Sidorenko, D., Fast, I.,
Rackow, T., Cabos, W., and Jung, T.: Ocean Modeling on a Mesh With Resolution
Following the Local Rossby Radius, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 9, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001099, 2017. a
Shen, B. W., Pielke, R. A., Zeng, X., Baik, J. J., Faghih-Naini, S., Cui, J.,
and Atlas, R.: Is weather chaotic? Coexistence of chaos and order within a
generalized lorenz model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
102, E148–E158, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0165.1, 2021. a
Shepherd, T. G.: Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate
change projections, Nat. Geosci., 7, 703–708, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2253,
2014. a
Shutts, G. J.: The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: Eddy
vorticity forcing of “blocking” flow fields, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 109, 737–761, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710946204, 1983. a, b, c
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl,
C., Allan, R. J., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose,
R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft,
L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A.,
Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Jones,
P. D., Kubota, H., Lee, T. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Mock, C. J.,
Przybylak, R. K., Pudmenzky, C., Slonosky, V. C., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Wang,
X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.: An Evaluation of
the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3, J. Climate, 34, 1417–1438, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1, 2021. a
Small, R. J., Msadek, R., Kwon, Y.-O., Booth, J. F., and Zarzycki, C.:
Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two
sets of global climate model experiments, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2067–2089,
2019. a
Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Scaife, A. A., Caron, L. P., Danabasoglu, G., DelSole,
T. M., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Hermanson, L.,
Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T., Müller,
W. A., Pohlmann, H., Yeager, S., and Yang, X.: Robust skill of decadal
climate predictions, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 13,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y, 2019. a
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Soares, P. M. M., Ramos, A. M.,
and Liberato, M. L. R.: Responses of European precipitation distributions
and regimes to different blocking locations, Clim. Dynam., 48,
1141–1160, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-016-3132-5, 2016. a
Steinfeld, D., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., and Pfahl, S.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020. a
Stephenson, D. B., Hannachi, A., and O'Neill, A.: On the existence of multiple
climate regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130,
583–605, https://doi.org/10.1256/QJ.02.146, 2004. a
Strommen, K., Mavilia, I., Corti, S., Matsueda, M., Davini, P., von Hardenberg,
J., Vidale, P. L., and Mizuta, R.: The Sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic Regimes
to Model Horizontal Resolution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
7810–7818, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082843, 2019. a, b, c, d
Strong, C. and Magnusdottir, G.: Dependence of NAO variability on coupling
with sea ice, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1681–1689, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0752-z, 2011. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Trevisan, A. and Buzzi, A.: Stationary Response of Barotropic Weakly Nonlinear
Rossby Waves to Quasi-Resonant Orographic Forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 947–957, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0947:srobwn>2.0.co;2,
1980. a
Tyrlis, E. and Hoskins, B. J.: The Morphology of Northern Hemisphere
Blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1653–1665,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2338.1, 2008. a
Ullmann, A., Fontaine, B., and Roucou, P.: Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and
Mediterranean rainfall patterns: Present-day variability and expected changes
under CMIP5 projections, Int. J. Climatol., 34,
2634–2650, https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.3864, 2014. a, b
Van Der Wiel, K., Bloomfield, H. C., Lee, R. W., Stoop, L. P., Blackport, R.,
Screen, J. A., and Selten, F. M.: Environmental Research Letters The
influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and
demand Recent citations The influence of weather regimes on European
renewable energy production and demand, Environ. Res. Lett, 14, 9,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3, 2019. a
Vissio, G., Lembo, V., Lucarini, V., and Ghil, M.: Evaluating the Performance
of Climate Models Based on Wasserstein Distance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 21, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089385, 2020. a
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A.,
Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat,
P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I.,
Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville,
H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G.,
Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., and
Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 11, 2177–2213,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683, 2019. a
Wang, L., Ting, M., and Kushner, P. J.: A robust empirical seasonal prediction
of winter NAO and surface climate, Sci. Rep., 7, 279,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y, 2017. a
Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., and Palmer, T.:
Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal
variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 917–926,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2976, 2017. a
White, R. H., Hilgenbrink, C., and Sheshadri, A.: The Importance of Greenland
in Setting the Northern Preferred Position of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven
Jet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14126–14134,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084780, 2019. a
Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Blockley, E. W., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert, D.,
Comer, R., Davis, P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hill, R., Hyder, P., Ineson,
S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S. F., Rae, J.
G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schiemann, R., Storkey, D., Thorpe, L.,
Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A., Woollings, T., and
Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and
GC3.1) Configurations, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 10,
357–380, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001115, 2018.
a
Woollings, T. and Blackburn, M.: The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate
Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns, J. Climate, 25,
886–902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1, 2012. a
Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., and Hoskins, B.: Variability of the North
Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856–868, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625, 2010. a, b, c
Woollings, T., Czuchnicki, C., and Franzke, C.: Twentieth century North
Atlantic jet variability, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 783–791, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2197, 2014. a
Woollings, T., Barnes, E., Hoskins, B., Kwon, Y. O., Lee, R. W., Li, C.,
Madonna, E., McGraw, M., Parker, T., Rodrigues, R., Spensberger, C., and
Williams, K.: Daily to decadal modulation of jet variability, J. Climate, 31, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0286.1, 2018. a, b, c
Woollings, T. J., Hoskins, B., Blackburn, M., and Berrisford, P.: A new Rossby
wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609–626, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2347.1, 2008. a
Yamazaki, A. and Itoh, H.: Vortex-vortex interactions for the maintenance of
blocking. part I: The selective absorption mechanism and a case study,
J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 725–742,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0295.1, 2013. a
Zhang, W., Kirtman, B., Siqueira, L., Clement, A., and Xia, J.: Understanding
the signal-to-noise paradox in decadal climate predictability from CMIP5 and
an eddying global coupled model, Clim. Dynam., 56, 2895–2913,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05621-8, 2021. a, b
Short summary
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather...
