Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022
Research article
 | 
15 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 15 Jul 2022

Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events

Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen

Model code and software

properscoring 0.1 The Climate Corporation https://pypi.org/project/properscoring/

Download
Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.