Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Research article
 | 
15 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 15 Jul 2022

Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events

Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen

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Latest update: 06 Mar 2025
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Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
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