Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2022

Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts

Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
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