Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Research article
05 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2022

Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts

Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner

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Related subject area

Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
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Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096,,, 2022
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Cited articles

Albers, J. R. and Birner, T.: Vortex Preconditioning due to Planetary and Gravity Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4028–4054,, 2014. a, b
Allen, M.: Liability for climate change, Nature, 421, 891–892,, 2003. a
Augier, P. and Lindborg, E.: A new formulation of the spectral energy budget of the atmosphere, with application to two high-resolution general circulation models, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2293–2308,, 2013. a
Ayarzagüena, B., Palmeiro, F. M., Barriopedro, D., Calvo, N., Langematz, U., and Shibata, K.: On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9469–9484,, 2019. a
Baldwin, M. and Dunkerton, T.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584,, 2001. a, b, c, d
Short summary
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.