Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
Research article
 | 
05 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2023

Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis

Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli

Data sets

Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz‐Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, P. Bechtold, G. Biavati, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, G. De Chiara, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, M. Diamantakis, R. Dragani, J. Flemming, R. Forbes, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, R. J. Hogan, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, S. Keeley, P. Laloyaux, P. Lopez, C. Lupu, G. Radnoti, P. de Rosnay, I. Rozum, F. Vamborg, S. Villaume, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf

Video supplement

Animations of uncertainty growth rates from operational ensemble prediction systems, for the time period 20 November 2020-10 March 2021 M. Rodwell and H. Wernli https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000605102

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Short summary
Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
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