Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
Research article
 | 
05 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2023

Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis

Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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Short summary
Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
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