Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Oct 2024
Research article |
| 24 Oct 2024
| 24 Oct 2024
Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories
Benjamin Doiteau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Florian Pantillon
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Matthieu Plu
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Laurent Descamps
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Thomas Rieutord
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland
Related authors
Aymeric Dziduch, Antoine Baudoux, Guillaume Mioche, Antoine Canzi, Benjamin Doiteau, Manuel Moser, Emma Järvinen, Étienne Vignon, Jean-Christophe Raut, Régis Dupuy, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jean-Luc Baray, Marie Monier, Frédéric Szczap, Guillaume Penide, Julien Delanoë, Odran Sourdeval, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Stephan Mertes, Franz Martin Schnaiter, Christiane Voigt, Mario Mech, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Christof Lüpkes, André Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, and Olivier Jourdan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the microphysical properties and ice crystal habits of low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds around Svalbard. Using airborne in situ observations from four campaigns, we show that cloud microphysical structure and ice crystal habits are influenced by weather conditions and surface type. These results provide quantitative observations to better understand low-level Arctic clouds, their ice formation processes, and their influence on the Arctic atmosphere and climate system.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Aymeric Dziduch, Antoine Baudoux, Guillaume Mioche, Antoine Canzi, Benjamin Doiteau, Manuel Moser, Emma Järvinen, Étienne Vignon, Jean-Christophe Raut, Régis Dupuy, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jean-Luc Baray, Marie Monier, Frédéric Szczap, Guillaume Penide, Julien Delanoë, Odran Sourdeval, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Stephan Mertes, Franz Martin Schnaiter, Christiane Voigt, Mario Mech, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Christof Lüpkes, André Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, and Olivier Jourdan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the microphysical properties and ice crystal habits of low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds around Svalbard. Using airborne in situ observations from four campaigns, we show that cloud microphysical structure and ice crystal habits are influenced by weather conditions and surface type. These results provide quantitative observations to better understand low-level Arctic clouds, their ice formation processes, and their influence on the Arctic atmosphere and climate system.
Sara Arriolabengoa, Pierre Crispel, Olivier Jaron, Yves Bouteloup, Benoît Vié, Yun Li, Andreas Petzold, and Matthieu Plu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18051–18076, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, have a significant impact on the global climate when they persist. In this work, we present a modification to the Météo-France weather model ARPEGE (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle) to improve the forecasting of areas favourable to the persistence of contrails. The spatial correspondence between observations and the modified model is demonstrated and evaluated by appropriate metrics. The modified model can therefore be used for further contrail climate impact applications.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1515–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic storms ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns an analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes, and attribution theory.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15793–15816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the potential value of using fine-scale meteorological ensembles to represent the inherent meteorological uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion model outputs. Probabilistic scores were used to evaluate the probabilistic performance of dispersion ensembles, using an original dataset of new continuous 85Kr air concentration measurements and a well-known source term. The results show that the ensemble dispersion simulations perform better than deterministic ones.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Cited articles
Alpert, P. and Ziv, B.: The Sharav Cyclone: Observations and some theoretical considerations, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 18495–18514, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD15p18495, 1989. a, b
Alpert, P., Neeman, B. U., and Shay-El, Y.: Climatological analysis of Mediterranean cyclones using ECMWF data, Tellus, 42, 65–77, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.00007.x, 1990. a, b
Aragão, L. and Porcù, F.: Cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean region from a high-resolution perspective using ECMWF ERA5 dataset, Clim. Dynam., 58, 1293–1310, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05963-x, 2022. a
Argence, S., Lambert, D., Richard, E., Chaboureau, J.-P., and Söhne, N.: Impact of initial condition uncertainties on the predictability of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean: a case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.314, 2008. a
Ayrault, F.: Environnement, structure et évolution des dépressions météorologiques: réalité climatologique et modèles types, PhD thesis, http://www.theses.fr/1998TOU30033 (last access: 19 October 2024), 1998. a
Baumgart, M., Ghinassi, P., Wirth, V., Selz, T., Craig, G. C., and Riemer, M.: Quantitative View on the Processes Governing the Upscale Error Growth up to the Planetary Scale Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1713–1731, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0292.1, 2019. a
Buizza, R. and Hollingsworth, A.: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Meteorol. Appl., 9, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482702003031, 2002. a
Buizza, R., Milleer, M., and Palmer, T. N.: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556006, 1999. a
Campins, J., Genovés, A., Picornell, M. A., and Jansà, A.: Climatology of Mediterranean cyclones using the ERA-40 dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1596–1614, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2183, 2011. a, b, c
Candille, G., Côté, C., Houtekamer, P. L., and Pellerin, G.: Verification of an Ensemble Prediction System against Observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 2688–2699, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3414.1, 2007. a
Cavicchia, L., von Storch, H., and Gualdi, S.: A long-term climatology of medicanes, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1183–1195, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1893-7, 2014. a
Di Muzio, E., Riemer, M., Fink, A. H., and Maier‐Gerber, M.: Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object‐based approach, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1202–1217, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3489, 2019. a
Flaounas, E., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Gray, S. L., Rysman, J.-F., and Claud, C.: Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2935–2949, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3783-x, 2018. a
Flaounas, E., Gray, S. L., and Teubler, F.: A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021. a
Flaounas, E., Davolio, S., Raveh-Rubin, S., Pantillon, F., Miglietta, M. M., Gaertner, M. A., Hatzaki, M., Homar, V., Khodayar, S., Korres, G., Kotroni, V., Kushta, J., Reale, M., and Ricard, D.: Mediterranean cyclones: current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022. a
Flaounas, E., Aragão, L., Bernini, L., Dafis, S., Doiteau, B., Flocas, H., Gray, S. L., Karwat, A., Kouroutzoglou, J., Lionello, P., Miglietta, M. M., Pantillon, F., Pasquero, C., Patlakas, P., Picornell, M. A., Porcù, F., Priestley, M. D. K., Reale, M., Roberts, M. J., Saaroni, H., Sandler, D., Scoccimarro, E., Sprenger, M., and Ziv, B.: A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L., and Hodges, K. I.: The Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks and the Sensitivity of Their Prediction to the Observing System, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3274.1,2007a. a, b, c, d
Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Dacre, H. F.: How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866, 2012. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R.J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Horvath, K., Lin, Y.-L., and Ivančan-Picek, B.: Classification of Cyclone Tracks over the Apennines and the Adriatic Sea, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2210–2227, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2231.1, 2008. a, b
Kouroutzoglou, J., Flocas, H. A., Keay, K., Simmonds, I., and Hatzaki, M.: Climatological aspects of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1785–1802, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2203, 2011. a
Lagouvardos, K., Karagiannidis, A., Dafis, S., Kalimeris, A., and Kotroni, V.: Ianos – A Hurricane in the Mediterranean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1621–E1636, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0274.1, 2022. a
Leonardo, N. M. and Colle, B. A.: Verification of Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Weather Forecast., 32, 2083–2101, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0058.1, 2017. a
Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T.: Ensemble forecasting, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3515–3539, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.014, 2008. a
Lfarh, W., Pantillon, F., and Chaboureau, J.-P.: The Downward Transport of Strong Wind by Convective Rolls in a Mediterranean Windstorm, Mon. Weather Rev., 151, 2801–2817, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0099.1, 2023. a
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, I. F., and Trigo, R. M.: Klaus – an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France, Weather, 66, 330–334, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.755, 2011. a
Lionello, P., Trigo, I. F., Gil, V., Liberato, M. L. R., Nissen, K. M., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Tanzarella, A., Trigo, R. M., Ulbrich, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus view among methods with different system identification and tracking criteria, Tellus, 68, 29391, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29391, 2016. a
Lorenz, E. N.: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion, Tellus, 21, 289–307, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00444.x, 1969. a
Maheras, P., Flocas, H., Patrikas, I., and Anagnostopoulou, C.: A 40 year objective climatology of surface cyclones in the Mediterranean region: spatial and temporal distribution, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 109–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.599, 2001. a
Melhauser, C. and Zhang, F.: Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Severe and Convective Weather at the Mesoscales, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3350–3371, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0315.1, 2012. a
Miglietta, M. M., Mastrangelo, D., and Conte, D.: Influence of physics parameterization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 153, 360–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.09.008, 2015. a
Miglietta, M. M., Carnevale, D., Levizzani, V., and Rotunno, R.: Role of moist and dry air advection in the development of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes), Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 876–899, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3951, 2021. a
Pantillon, F., Knippertz, P., and Corsmeier, U.: Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Pantillon, F. P., Chaboureau, J.-P., Mascart, P. J., and Lac, C.: Predictability of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Storm Downstream of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Helene (2006), Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1943–1962, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00164.1, 2013. a
Picornell, M. A., Jansà, A., and Genovés, A.: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1787–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1787-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Pirret, J. S. R., Knippertz, P., and Trzeciak, T. M.: Drivers for the deepening of severe European windstorms and their impacts on forecast quality, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 309–320, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2923, 2017. a, b, c, d
Portmann, R., González-Alemán, J. J., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas), Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020. a
Prezerakos, N. G., Flocas, H. A., and Brikas, D.: The role of the interaction between polar and subtropical jet in a case of depression rejuvenation over the Eastern Mediterranean, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 92, 1436–5065, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0142-y, 2006. a
Raveh-Rubin, S. and Flaounas, E.: A dynamical link between deep Atlantic extratropical cyclones and intense Mediterranean cyclones, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 18, 215–221, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.745, 2017. a, b
Raveh‐Rubin, S. and Wernli, H.: Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean: dynamical aspects of five selected cyclone events, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 3097–3114, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2891, 2016. a
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014. a
Sanchez-Gomez, E. and Somot, S.: Impact of the internal variability on the cyclone tracks simulated by a regional climate model over the Med-CORDEX domain, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1005–1021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3394-y, 2018. a
Thorncroft, C. D. and Flocas, H. A.: A Case Study of Saharan Cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 1147–1165, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1147:ACSOSC>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Torn, R. D. and Cook, D.: The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010), Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 232–251, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00086.1, 2013. a
Tous, M., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Surface heat fluxes influence on medicane trajectories and intensification, Atmos. Res., 123, 400–411, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.05.022, 2013. a
Trigo, I. F., Davies, T. D., and Bigg, G. R.: Objective Climatology of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region, J. Climate, 12, 1685–1696, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1685:OCOCIT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b
van der Grijn, G.: Tropical cyclone forecasting at ECMWF: new products and validation, ECMWF, https://doi.org/10.21957/c8525o38f, 2002. a
Vich, M., Romero, R., and Brooks, H. E.: Ensemble prediction of Mediterranean high-impact events using potential vorticity perturbations. Part I: Comparison against the multiphysics approach, Atmos. Res., 102, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.017, 2011. a
Vitart, F., Balsamo, G., Bidlot, J.-R., Lang, S., Tsonevsky, I., Richardson, D., and Alonso-Balmaseda, M.: Use of ERA5 reanalysis to initialise re-forecasts proves beneficial, ECMWF, https://doi.org/10.21957/g71fv083lm, 2019. a
Winstanley, D.: SHARAV, Weather, 27, 146–160, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1972.tb04279.x, 1972. a, b
Zhang, F., Bei, N., Rotunno, R., Snyder, C., and Epifanio, C. C.: Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Convection-Permitting Experiments and Multistage Error Growth Dynamics, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3579–3594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4028.1, 2007. a
Short summary
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960...
