Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Oct 2024
Research article |
| 24 Oct 2024
| 24 Oct 2024
Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories
Benjamin Doiteau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Florian Pantillon
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Matthieu Plu
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Laurent Descamps
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Thomas Rieutord
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland
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Short summary
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960...
