Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 13 Feb 2024
| 13 Feb 2024
Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Julien Beaumet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Atmo Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, 38400 Grenoble, France
Martin Ménégoz
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Hubert Gallée
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Enzo Le Bouëdec
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Chantal Staquet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Related authors
Simon F. Reifenberg, Anna Martin, Matthias Kohl, Sara Bacer, Zaneta Hamryszczak, Ivan Tadic, Lenard Röder, Daniel J. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Raphael Dörich, John N. Crowley, Laura Tomsche, Andreas Marsing, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, Mira Pöhlker, Patrick Jöckel, Marcel Dorf, Ulrich Schumann, Jonathan Williams, Birger Bohn, Joachim Curtius, Hardwig Harder, Hans Schlager, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10901–10917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we use a combination of observational data from an aircraft campaign and model results to investigate the effect of the European lockdown due to COVID-19 in spring 2020. Using model results, we show that the largest relative changes to the atmospheric composition caused by the reduced emissions are located in the upper troposphere around aircraft cruise altitude, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Domenico Taraborrelli, David Cabrera-Perez, Sara Bacer, Sergey Gromov, Jos Lelieveld, Rolf Sander, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2615–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning are usually regarded as ozone precursors. Monocyclic aromatics are no exception. Calculations with a comprehensive atmospheric model are consistent with this view but only for air masses close to pollution source regions. However, the same model predicts that aromatics, when transported to remote areas, may effectively destroy ozone. This loss of tropospheric ozone rivals the one attributed to bromine.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Odran Sourdeval, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1485–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative importance of the rates of both microphysical processes and unphysical correction terms that act as sources or sinks of ice crystals in cold clouds. By means of numerical simulations performed with a global chemistry–climate model, we assess the relevance of these rates at global and regional scales. This estimation is of fundamental importance to assign priority to the development of microphysics parameterizations and compare model output with observations.
Klaus Klingmüller, Vlassis A. Karydis, Sara Bacer, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15285–15295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate air pollution cools the climate and partially masks the greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight and enhancing the reflection by clouds. The intensity of this cooling depends on interactions between pollution and desert dust within the atmosphere. Our simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry-climate model indicate that these interactions significantly weaken the cooling.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Bioaerosols have been an important topic in atmospheric science in the last two decades. This paper compares different emission parametrizations used in fungal spores modeling and compare their results to two sets of new observational datasets. It emphasises their uncertainties in order to improve their modeling in the future. This comparison is addressed primarily to the scientific community (publishing in ACP) interested in this type of modeling and the related experimental work in this field.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Vlassis A. Karydis, Donifan Barahona, Martina Krämer, Athanasios Nenes, Holger Tost, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4021–4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The complexity of ice nucleation mechanisms and aerosol--ice interactions makes their representation still challenging in atmospheric models. We have implemented a comprehensive ice crystal formation parameterization in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to improve the representation of ice crystal number concentrations. The newly implemented parameterization takes into account processes which were previously neglected by the standard version of the model.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Vlassis A. Karydis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Sara Bacer, Andrea Pozzer, Athanasios Nenes, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5601–5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The importance of mineral dust for cloud droplet formation is studied by considering the adsorption activation of insoluble dust particles and the thermodynamic interactions between mineral cations and inorganic anions. This study demonstrates that a comprehensive treatment of the CCN activity of mineral dust and its chemical and thermodynamic interactions with inorganic species by chemistry climate models is important to realistically account for aerosol–chemistry–cloud–climate interaction.
Sara Bacer, Theodoros Christoudias, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15581–15592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on atmospheric pollutant transport in the 21st century under a global climate-change scenario, using a coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean general circulation model. We find that, at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations during positive NAO phases with respect to the past, while a wider part of north Europe will see lower pollutant concentrations.
S. Bacer, T. Christoudias, and A. Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its relation to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future.
We use a global climate circulation model in order to analyze the NAO signal and its correlation with pollutant concentrations. We find that the NAO is influenced by natural climate variability and that the NAO Indices may be used as indicators of (future) pollutant transport over Europe.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Catherine Ottlé, and Frédérique Cheruy
The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of topography on snow cover parameterizations using models and observations. Parameterizations without topography-based considerations overestimate snow cover. Incorporating topography reduces snow overestimation by 5–10 % in mountains, in turn reducing cold biases. However, some biases remain, requiring further calibration and more data. Assessing snow cover parameterizations is challenging due to limited and uncertain data in mountainous regions.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Simon F. Reifenberg, Anna Martin, Matthias Kohl, Sara Bacer, Zaneta Hamryszczak, Ivan Tadic, Lenard Röder, Daniel J. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Raphael Dörich, John N. Crowley, Laura Tomsche, Andreas Marsing, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, Mira Pöhlker, Patrick Jöckel, Marcel Dorf, Ulrich Schumann, Jonathan Williams, Birger Bohn, Joachim Curtius, Hardwig Harder, Hans Schlager, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10901–10917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we use a combination of observational data from an aircraft campaign and model results to investigate the effect of the European lockdown due to COVID-19 in spring 2020. Using model results, we show that the largest relative changes to the atmospheric composition caused by the reduced emissions are located in the upper troposphere around aircraft cruise altitude, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Domenico Taraborrelli, David Cabrera-Perez, Sara Bacer, Sergey Gromov, Jos Lelieveld, Rolf Sander, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2615–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning are usually regarded as ozone precursors. Monocyclic aromatics are no exception. Calculations with a comprehensive atmospheric model are consistent with this view but only for air masses close to pollution source regions. However, the same model predicts that aromatics, when transported to remote areas, may effectively destroy ozone. This loss of tropospheric ozone rivals the one attributed to bromine.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Odran Sourdeval, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1485–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative importance of the rates of both microphysical processes and unphysical correction terms that act as sources or sinks of ice crystals in cold clouds. By means of numerical simulations performed with a global chemistry–climate model, we assess the relevance of these rates at global and regional scales. This estimation is of fundamental importance to assign priority to the development of microphysics parameterizations and compare model output with observations.
Klaus Klingmüller, Vlassis A. Karydis, Sara Bacer, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15285–15295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate air pollution cools the climate and partially masks the greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight and enhancing the reflection by clouds. The intensity of this cooling depends on interactions between pollution and desert dust within the atmosphere. Our simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry-climate model indicate that these interactions significantly weaken the cooling.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Florentin Lemonnier, Alizée Chemison, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, and Christophe Genthon
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first evaluation from snowfall observations in Antarctica of the general circulation model LMDz (global), the atmospheric component of the coupled IPSL Climate Model that is part of CMIP6 (IPCC). We also present an evaluation of the new version of the MAR model (regional), considered as a reference in terms of polar climate modelling. Both models show satisfying results for the modelling of precipitation in Antarctica.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Mario Acosta, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Eleftheria Exarchou, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are one of the cornerstones of modern climate science. They are usually run on high-performance computers (HPCs). Whether the choice of HPC can affect the model results is a question of importance for optimizing the design of scientific studies. Here, we introduce a protocol for testing the replicability of the EC-Earth3 ESM across different HPCs. We find the simulation results to be replicable only if specific precautions are taken at the compilation stage.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Bioaerosols have been an important topic in atmospheric science in the last two decades. This paper compares different emission parametrizations used in fungal spores modeling and compare their results to two sets of new observational datasets. It emphasises their uncertainties in order to improve their modeling in the future. This comparison is addressed primarily to the scientific community (publishing in ACP) interested in this type of modeling and the related experimental work in this field.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Shaojie Song, Hélène Angot, Noelle E. Selin, Hubert Gallée, Francesca Sprovieri, Nicola Pirrone, Detlev Helmig, Joël Savarino, Olivier Magand, and Aurélien Dommergue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15825–15840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Mercury is a trace metal with adverse health effects on human and wildlife. Its unique property makes it undergo long-range transport, and even remote Antarctica receives significant inputs. This paper presents the first model that aims to understand mercury behavior over the Antarctic Plateau. We find that mercury is quickly cycled between snow and air in the sunlit period, likely driven by bromine chemistry, and that several uncertain processes contribute to its behavior in the dark period.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Vlassis A. Karydis, Donifan Barahona, Martina Krämer, Athanasios Nenes, Holger Tost, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4021–4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The complexity of ice nucleation mechanisms and aerosol--ice interactions makes their representation still challenging in atmospheric models. We have implemented a comprehensive ice crystal formation parameterization in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to improve the representation of ice crystal number concentrations. The newly implemented parameterization takes into account processes which were previously neglected by the standard version of the model.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Vlassis A. Karydis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Sara Bacer, Andrea Pozzer, Athanasios Nenes, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5601–5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The importance of mineral dust for cloud droplet formation is studied by considering the adsorption activation of insoluble dust particles and the thermodynamic interactions between mineral cations and inorganic anions. This study demonstrates that a comprehensive treatment of the CCN activity of mineral dust and its chemical and thermodynamic interactions with inorganic species by chemistry climate models is important to realistically account for aerosol–chemistry–cloud–climate interaction.
Christophe Genthon, Luc Piard, Etienne Vignon, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Mathieu Casado, and Hubert Gallée
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 691–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-691-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-691-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Natural atmospheric supersaturation is a norm rather than an exception at the surface of Dome C on the Antarctic Plateau. This is reported by hygrometers adapted to perform in extreme cold environments and avoid release of excess moisture before it is measured. One year of observation shows that atmospheric models with cold microphysics parameterizations designed for high altitude cirrus reproduce frequently but fail with the detailed statistics of supersaturation at the surface of Dome C.
Sara Bacer, Theodoros Christoudias, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15581–15592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on atmospheric pollutant transport in the 21st century under a global climate-change scenario, using a coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean general circulation model. We find that, at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations during positive NAO phases with respect to the past, while a wider part of north Europe will see lower pollutant concentrations.
S. Bacer, T. Christoudias, and A. Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its relation to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future.
We use a global climate circulation model in order to analyze the NAO signal and its correlation with pollutant concentrations. We find that the NAO is influenced by natural climate variability and that the NAO Indices may be used as indicators of (future) pollutant transport over Europe.
Related subject area
Role of atmospheric dynamics in climate change projections
Characteristics and dynamics of extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate
On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6
The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes
Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogues method
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Data-driven discovery of mechanisms underlying present and near-future precipitation changes and variability in Brazil
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis
Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean
The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates
Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature
Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking
Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean
Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes
The importance of horizontal model resolution on simulated precipitation in Europe – from global to regional models
Future wintertime meridional wind trends through the lens of subseasonal teleconnections
Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2
The substructure of extremely hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of the bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep-learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drive these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme meteorological and climatological events properties are changing under human caused climate change. Extreme events attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogues method which compare the observed event to similar events in the past.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Márcia Talita A. Marques, Maria Luiza Kovalski, Gabriel M. P. Perez, Thomas C. M. Martin, Edson L. S. Y. Barbosa, Pedro Augusto S. M. Ribeiro, and Roilan H. Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-48, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve decision-making in the water-energy-food nexus, we untangling the complex network of physical processes driving regional precipitation regimes in the present and near-future climates using a data-driven mechanistic approach to reduce the uncertaint of future projections. The main mechanistic link discovered by is that the generalised warming of the oceans promotes a suppression of precipitation in Northeast and Southeast Brazil, likely due to an intensified Hadley circulation.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Cited articles
Arduini, G., Chemel, C., and Staquet, C.: Local and non-local controls on a persistent cold-air pool in the Arve River Valley, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 2497–2521, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3776, 2020. a, b
Bacer, S., Jomaa, F., Beaumet, J., Gallée, H., Le Bouëdec, E., Ménégoz, M., and Staquet, C.: Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022. a, b
Beaumet, J., Ménégoz, M., Morin, S., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Six, D., Vincent, C., Wilhelm, B., and Anquetin, S.: Twentieth century temperature and snow cover changes in the French Alps, Reg. Environ. Change, 21, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01830-x, 2021. a, b
Beaumet, J., Ménégoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MAR-MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP585 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5834376, 2022a. a
Beaumet, J., Ménégoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MAR-MPI-ESM1-2-HR HIST (1961–2014) and SSP245 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5834221, 2022b. a
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000009552, 1992. a
Cannon, A. J.: Reductions in daily continental-scale atmospheric circulation biases between generations of global climate models: CMIP5 to CMIP6, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 064006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7e4f, 2020. a
Caserini, S., Giani, P., Cacciamani, C., Ozgen, S., and Lonati, G.: Influence of climate change on the frequency of daytime temperature inversions and stagnation events in the Po Valley: historical trend and future projections, Atmos. Res., 184, 15–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.09.018, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Chemel, C., Arduini, G., Staquet, C., Largeron, Y., Legain, D., Tzanos, D., and Paci, A.: Valley heat deficit as a bulk measure of wintertime particulate air pollution in the Arve River Valley, Atmos. Environ., 128, 208–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.12.058, 2016. a
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Implementation and Sensitivity, Mon. Weather Rev. 129, 569–585, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Connolly, A., Chow, F., and Hoch, S.: Nested Large-Eddy Simulations of the Displacement of a Cold-Air Pool by Lee Vortices, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 178, 91–118, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-020-00561-6, 2021. a
Crosman, E. T. and Horel, J. D.: Large-eddy simulations of a Salt Lake Valley cold-air pool, Atmosp. Res., 193, 10–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.010, 2017. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fernandez-Granja, J., Casanueva, A., Bedia, J., and Fernandez, J.: Improved atmospheric circulation over Europe by the new generation of CMIP6 earth system models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3527–3540, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05652-9, 2021. a
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., and Gallée, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017. a
Gallée, H. and Schayes, G.: Development of a three-dimensional meso-gamma primitive equations model, katabatic winds simulation in the area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 671–685, 1994. a
Gallée, H., Pettré, P., and Schayes, G.: Sudden Cessation of Katabatic Winds in Adélie Land, Antarctica, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 35, 1142–1152, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1996)035<1142:SCOKWI>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Gallée, H., Peyaud, V., and Goodwin, I.: Simulation of the net snow accumulation along the Wilkes Land transect, Antarctica, with a regional climate model, Ann. Glaciol., 41, 17–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781813230, 2005. a
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.: A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006. a
Hou, P. and Wu, S.: Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and the Implications for Air Quality, Sci. Rep., 6, 23792, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23792, 2016. a
Iacobellis, S. F., Norris, J. R., Kanamitsu, M., Tyree, M., and Cayan, D. C.: Climate variability and California low-level temperature inversions, Publication no. CEC-500-2009-020-F, California Climate Change Center, http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-020/CEC-500-2009-020-F.PDF (last access: 16 May 2023), 2009. a
Ji, F., Evans, J., Di Luca, A., Jiang, N., Olson, R., Fita, L., Argüeso, D., Chang, L.-C., Scorgie, Y., and Riley, M.: Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia, Clim. Dynam., 52, 1487–1503, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4214-3, 2019. a, b
Jiménez, P. A., Dudhia, J., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Montavez, J. P., and Garcia-Bustamante, E.: A Revised Scheme for the WRF Surface Layer Formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012. a
Jungclaus, J., Bittner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Schupfner, M., Legutke, S., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, WCRP, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6594, 2019. a
Largeron, Y. and Staquet, C.: The atmospheric boundary layer during wintertime persistent inversions in the Grenoble valleys, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 70, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00070, 2016b. a, b, c, d
Le Bouëdec, E.: Wintertime characteristic atmospheric circulation in the Grenoble basin and impact on air pollution, PhD thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, https://theses.hal.science/tel-04148049 (last access: 1 April 2023), 2021. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a
Ménégoz, M., Gallée, H., and Jacobi, H. W.: Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3921–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3921-2013, 2013. a
Ménégoz, M., Valla, E., Jourdain, N. C., Blanchet, J., Beaumet, J., Wilhelm, B., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Morin, S., and Anquetin, S.: Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020. a
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vautard, R., and Legras, B.: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi stationarity, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237–1256, 1995. a
Milionis, A. E. and Davies, T. D.: The effect of the prevailing weather on the statistics of atmospheric temperature inversions, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1385–1397, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1613, 2008. a
Monteiro, D. and Morin, S.: Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets, The Cryosphere, 17, 3617–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, 2023. a
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1383–1413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018. a
Neemann, E. M., Crosman, E. T., Horel, J. D., and Avey, L.: Simulations of a cold-air pool associated with elevated wintertime ozone in the Uintah Basin, Utah, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-135-2015, 2015. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Philipona, R.: Greenhouse warming and solar brightening in and around the Alps, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1530–1537, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3531, 2013. a, b
Quimbayo-Duarte, J., Chemel, C., Staquet, C., Troude, F., and Arduini, G.: Drivers of severe air pollution events in a deep valley during wintertime: A case study from the Arve river valley, France, Atmos. Environ., 247, 118030, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118030, 2021. a, b
Rasilla, D. F., Martilli, A., Allende, F., and Fernández, F.: Long-term evolution of cold air pools over the Madrid basin, Int. J. Climatol., 43, 38–56, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7700, 2022. a, b, c
Reeves, H. D. and Stensrud, D. J.: Synoptic-scale flow and valley cold pool evolution in the Western United States, Weather Forecast., 24, 1625–1643, 2009. a
Sabatier, T., Largeron, Y., Paci, A., Lac, C., Rodier, Q., Canut, G., and Masson, V.: Semi-idealized simulations of wintertime flows and pollutant transport in an Alpine valley. Part II: Passive tracer tracking, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 827–845, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3710, 2020. a
Schmidli, J., Böing, S., and Fuhrer, O.: Accuracy of Simulated Diurnal Valley Winds in the Swiss Alps: Influence of Grid Resolution, Topography Filtering, and Land Surface Datasets, Atmosphere, 9, 196, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050196, 2018. a
Schupfner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Steger, C., Bittner, M., Jungclaus, J., Früh, B., Pankatz, K., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: CMIP6 ScenarioMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp245 – RCM-forcing data, WCD Climate, https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP245-HR, 2020a. a
Schupfner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Steger, C., Bittner, M., Jungclaus, J., Früh, B., Pankatz, K., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: CMIP6 ScenarioMIP DKRZ MPI-ESM1-2-HR ssp585_r1i1p1f1 – RCM-forcing data, WCD Climate, https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/RCM_CMIP6_SSP585-HR_r1i1p1f1, 2020b. a
Skamarock, W., Klemp, J., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J., Duda, M., Barker, D., and Huang, X.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4, ncar technical notes – ncar/tn-556+str Edn., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/technote/v4_technote.pdf (last access: 2 March 2023), 2019. a
Tomasi, E., Giovannini, L., Falocchi, M., Antonacci, G., Jiménez, P. A., Kosovic, B., Alessandrini, S., Zardi, D., Delle Monache, L., and Ferrero, E.: Turbulence parameterizations for dispersion in sub-kilometer horizontally non-homogeneous flows, Atmos. Res., 228, 122–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.018, 2019. a
Umek, L., Gohm, A., Haid, M., Ward, H. C., and Rotach, M. W.: Large-eddy simulation of foehn–cold pool interactions in the Inn Valley during PIANO IOP 2, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 944–982, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3954, 2021. a
Whiteman, C. and Doran, J.: The Relationship between Overlying Synoptic-Scale Flows and Winds within a Valley, J. Appl. Meteorol., 32, 1669–1682, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1993)032<1669:TRBOSS>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Whiteman, C. and McKee, T.: Breakup of Temperature Inversions in Deep Mountain Valleys: Part II. Thermodynamic Model, J. Appl. Meteorol., 21, 290–302, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0290:BOTIID>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Whiteman, C. D., Bian, X., and Zhong, S.: Wintertime Evolution of the Temperature Inversion in the Colorado Plateau Basin, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1103–1117, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<1103:WEOTTI>2.0.CO;2, 1999a. a
Yu, L., Zhong, S., and Bian, X.: Multi-day valley cold-air pools in the western United States as derived from NARR, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 2466–2476, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4858, 2017. a, b
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020. a
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley...
