Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Research article
 | 
24 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2024

Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe

Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife

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Cited articles

Angus, M. and Leckebusch, G. C.: On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090446, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090446, 2020. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Hermanson, L., Scaife, A. A., MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Materia, S., Borrelli, A., and Gualdi, S.: The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems, J. Climate, 27, 9082–9100, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00291.1, 2014. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., Materia, S., Sanna, A., Borrelli, A., MacLachlan, C., and Gualdi, S.: A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions, J. Climate, 30, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0153.1, 2017. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Ogawa, F., Omrani, N.-E., Keenlyside, N., Schiemann, R., Baker, A. J., Vidale, P. L., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Haarsma, R., Roberts, M., Roberts, C., Novak, L., and Gualdi, S.: Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet, J. Climate, 35, 6985 – 7006, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0515.1, 2022. a
Befort, D. J., Wild, S., Knight, J. R., Lockwood, J. F., Thornton, H. E., Hermanson, L., Bett, P. E., Weisheimer, A., and Leckebusch, G. C.: Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 92–104, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3406, 2019. a, b, c, d
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This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
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