Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Research article
13 May 2024
Research article |  | 13 May 2024

Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century

Stephen Outten and Richard Davy

Data sets

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2) NOAA

Model code and software

nansencenter/CommonBasisFunction: Common Basis Function v1.0.0 Stephen Outten

eofs: EOF analysis in Python A. J. Dawson

Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.