Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 May 2024
Research article |
| 13 May 2024
| 13 May 2024
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Richard Davy
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
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Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
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Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020
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The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer.
I. Esau, R. Davy, S. Outten, S. Tyuryakov, and S. Zilitinkevich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 589–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, 2013
S. D. Outten and I. Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5163–5172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013, 2013
Tian Tian, Richard Davy, Leandro Ponsoni, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1865, 2024
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We introduced a modulating factor to the surface heat flux in the EC-Earth3 model to address the lack of parameterization for turbulent exchange over sea ice leads and correct the bias in Arctic sea ice. Three pairwise experiments showed that the amplified heat flux effectively reduces the overestimated sea ice, especially during cold periods, thereby improving agreement with observed and reanalysis data for sea ice area, volume, and ice edge, particularly in the North Atlantic Sector.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Basile de Fleurian, Richard Davy, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2265–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, 2022
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As temperature increases, more snow and ice melt at the surface of ice sheets. Here we use an ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology model with simplified geometry and climate forcing to study the impact of variations in meltwater on ice dynamics. We focus on the variations in length and intensity of the melt season. Our results show that a longer melt season leads to faster glaciers, but a more intense melt season reduces glaciers' seasonal velocities, albeit leading to higher peak velocities.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020
Short summary
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The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer.
Natalia Gnatiuk, Iuliia Radchenko, Richard Davy, Evgeny Morozov, and Leonid Bobylev
Biogeosciences, 17, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, 2020
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We analysed the ability of 34 climate models to reproduce main factors affecting the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi blooms in six Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. Furthermore, we proposed a procedure of ranking and selecting these models based on the model’s skill in reproducing 10 important oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in comparison with observation data and demonstrated that the proposed methodology shows a better result than commonly used all-model averaging.
Mikhail Varentsov, Pavel Konstantinov, Alexander Baklanov, Igor Esau, Victoria Miles, and Richard Davy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17573–17587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17573-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17573-2018, 2018
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This study reports on the urban heat island (UHI) in a typical Arctic city in winter. Using in situ observations, remote sensing data and modeling, we show that the urban temperature anomaly reaches up to 11 K with a mean value of 1.9 K. At least 50 % of this anomaly is caused by the UHI effect, driven mostly by heating. The rest is created by natural microclimatic variability over the hilly terrain. This is a strong argument in support of energy efficiency measures in the Arctic cities.
Peter W. Thorne, Fabio Madonna, Joerg Schulz, Tim Oakley, Bruce Ingleby, Marco Rosoldi, Emanuele Tramutola, Antti Arola, Matthias Buschmann, Anna C. Mikalsen, Richard Davy, Corinne Voces, Karin Kreher, Martine De Maziere, and Gelsomina Pappalardo
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, 2017
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The term system-of-systems with respect to observational capabilities is frequently used, but what does it mean and how can it be assessed? Here, we define one possible interpretation of a system-of-systems architecture that is based upon demonstrable aspects of observing capabilities. We develop a set of assessment strands and then apply these to a set of atmospheric observational networks to decide which observations may be suitable for characterising satellite platforms in future work.
Igor Esau, Victoria V. Miles, Richard Davy, Martin W. Miles, and Anna Kurchatova
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9563–9577, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9563-2016, 2016
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Vegetation cover in the remote and cold areas of northern West Siberia is rapidly changing. Analysis of summer maximum vegetation productivity index collected over 15 years (2000–2014) by Terra/Aqua satellites revealed “greening” over the northern (tundra/tundra-forest) and widespread “browning” over the southern (taiga) parts of the region. The vegetation changes around 28 urbanized areas were different. Many Siberian cities become greener even against wider browning trends at the background.
I. Esau, R. Davy, S. Outten, S. Tyuryakov, and S. Zilitinkevich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 589–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, 2013
S. D. Outten and I. Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5163–5172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review
The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere
Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos
The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A new characterisation of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using two-dimensional moment analysis
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Atmospheric Deserts: Detection and Consequences
Lagrangian characterization of heat waves: The perspective matters
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Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1299–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, 2024
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The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
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We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
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Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1103–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, 2024
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The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
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We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
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Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2403, 2024
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The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet, the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
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Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Fiona Fix, Georg Johann Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Kathrin Stucke, and Reto Stauffer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2143, 2024
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“Atmospheric deserts” (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms, and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow the AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyze the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2018, 2024
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Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heat waves in an air-parcel based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the obtained results depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
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Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
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Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Suzanne Louise Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1413, 2024
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Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging extratropical cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses which are too coarse to resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
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Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
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Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
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Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, 2024
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Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on very extreme cold events, such as the record of winter 1963 in France, expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France, to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
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Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
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Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
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A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
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Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
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Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
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The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
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Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
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There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
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The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
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Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
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In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
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Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
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Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
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Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
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In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
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We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
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Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
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Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Cited articles
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Fan, K., Tian, B., and Wang, H.: New approaches for the skillful prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation based on coupled dynamic climate models, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 82–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4330, 2016. a
Fasullo, J. T., Phillips, A. S., and Deser, C.: Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives, J. Climate, 33, 5527–5545, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1, 2020. a
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia, L.: Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A review, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 350–382, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2364, 2014. a
Haylock, M. R. and Goodess, C. M.: Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1033, 2004. a
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Madonna, E., Battisti, D. S., Li, C., and White, R. H.: Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 777–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, 2021. a
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Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., and Palmer, T.: Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 917–926, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2976, 2017. a
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature...
