Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Research article
13 May 2024
Research article |  | 13 May 2024

Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century

Stephen Outten and Richard Davy

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Cited articles

Cassou, C., Terray, L., Hurrell, J. W., and Deser, C.: North Atlantic Winter Climate Regimes: Spatial Asymmetry, Stationarity with Time, and Oceanic Forcing, J. Climate, 17, 1055–1068,<1055:NAWCRS>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Compo, G., Whitaker, J., Sardeshmukh, P., Matsui, N., Allan, R., Yin, X., Gleason, B., Vose, R., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R., Grant, A., Groisman, P., Jones, P., Kruk, M., Kruger, A., Marshall, G., Maugeri, M., Mok, H., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T., Trigo, R., Wang, X., Woodruff, S., and Worley, S.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28,, 2011. a
Dawson, A. J.: eofs: EOF analysis in Python, GitHub [code],, last access: 8 May 2024. 
Delworth, T. L. and Zeng, F.: The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Climate, 29, 941–962,, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958,, 2016. a
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.