Could an extremely cold central European winter  such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Sippel, Sebastian; Barnes, Clair; Cadiou, Camille; Fischer, Erich; Kew, Sarah; Kretschmer, Marlene; Philip, Sjoukje; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Singh, Jitendra; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Articles | Volume 5, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 5, issue 3

Research article

|

24 Jul 2024

Research article |

| 24 Jul 2024

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou

Data sets

Accompanying data to "Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?'' [Data set] Sebastian Sippel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12749575

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

sebastian-sippel/dynamical_adjustment_elasticnet: dynamical-adjustment-elasticnet (v1.0.0-beta) Sebastian Sippel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12746603

Short summary

Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.