Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 24 Jul 2024
| 24 Jul 2024
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Sebastian Sippel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
Clair Barnes
Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BU, UK
Camille Cadiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Erich Fischer
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Sarah Kew
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Marlene Kretschmer
Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Sjoukje Philip
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Jitendra Singh
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Robert Vautard
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université, France
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate E. Fischer et al.
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Evaluation of the Spatio-Temporal Variation of Extreme Cold Events in Southeastern Europe Using an Intensity–Duration Model and Excess Cold Factor Severity Index K. Malcheva et al.
- Unprecedented daily winter extremes for the UK energy sector B. Hutchins et al.
- A comparative analysis of temperature trends at Modena Geophysical Observatory and Mount Cimone Observatory, Italy S. Costanzini et al.
- A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research M. Kretschmer et al.
- Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors Y. Quilcaille et al.
- Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Changes in land cover and bird community composition in a Dutch coastal Dune landscape – a two-decade analysis S. Schmidt-Tauscher et al.
- The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution V. Thompson et al.
- Past and future changes in maximum air temperature and cold days in winter in Poland A. Tomczyk et al.
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al.
- Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes P. Pfleiderer et al.
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al.
- On the Link Between Weather Regimes and Energy Shortfall During Winter for 28 European Countries E. Rouges et al.
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate E. Fischer et al.
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Evaluation of the Spatio-Temporal Variation of Extreme Cold Events in Southeastern Europe Using an Intensity–Duration Model and Excess Cold Factor Severity Index K. Malcheva et al.
- Unprecedented daily winter extremes for the UK energy sector B. Hutchins et al.
- A comparative analysis of temperature trends at Modena Geophysical Observatory and Mount Cimone Observatory, Italy S. Costanzini et al.
- A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research M. Kretschmer et al.
- Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors Y. Quilcaille et al.
- Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Changes in land cover and bird community composition in a Dutch coastal Dune landscape – a two-decade analysis S. Schmidt-Tauscher et al.
- The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution V. Thompson et al.
- Past and future changes in maximum air temperature and cold days in winter in Poland A. Tomczyk et al.
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al.
- Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes P. Pfleiderer et al.
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al.
- On the Link Between Weather Regimes and Energy Shortfall During Winter for 28 European Countries E. Rouges et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems...
