Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2024

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou

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Latest update: 29 Jul 2025
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Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
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