Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 04 Nov 2025
| 04 Nov 2025
Response of Northern Hemisphere Rossby wave breaking to changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Daniel Köhler
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Petri Räisänen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Victoria A. Sinclair
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Related authors
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Sara Tahvonen, Arineh Cholakian, Manuel Bettineschi, Bruno Vitali, Tuukka Petäjä, and Federico Bianchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 545–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The terrestrial ecosystem releases large quantities of biogenic gases in the Earth's Atmosphere. These gases can effectively be converted into so-called biogenic aerosol particles and, eventually, affect the Earth's climate. Climate prediction varies greatly depending on how these processes are represented in model simulations. In this study, we present a detailed model evaluation analysis aimed at understanding the main source of uncertainty in predicting the formation of biogenic aerosols.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Aino Ovaska, Elio Rauth, Daniel Holmberg, Paulo Artaxo, John Backman, Benjamin Bergmans, Don Collins, Marco Aurélio Franco, Shahzad Gani, Roy M. Harrison, Rakes K. Hooda, Tareq Hussein, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, Kerneels Jaars, Adam Kristensson, Markku Kulmala, Lauri Laakso, Ari Laaksonen, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Colin O'Dowd, Jakub Ondracek, Tuukka Petäjä, Kristina Plauškaitė, Mira Pöhlker, Ximeng Qi, Peter Tunved, Ville Vakkari, Alfred Wiedensohler, Kai Puolamäki, Tuomo Nieminen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Pauli Paasonen
Aerosol Research Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-18, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for AR
Short summary
Short summary
We trained machine learning models to estimate the number of aerosol particles large enough to form clouds and generated daily estimates for the entire globe. The models performed well in many continental regions but struggled in remote and marine areas. Still, this approach offers a way to quantify these particles in areas that lack direct measurements, helping us understand their influence on clouds and climate on a global scale.
Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 669–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drives these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Luis Blacutt, Runlong Cai, Samara Carbone, Yvette Gramlich, Liine Heikkinen, Dominic Heslin-Rees, Wei Huang, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Markku Kulmala, Paolo Laj, Valeria Mardoñez-Balderrama, Claudia Mohr, Isabel Moreno, Pauli Paasonen, Wiebke Scholz, Karine Sellegri, Laura Ticona, Gaëlle Uzu, Fernando Velarde, Alfred Wiedensohler, Doug Worsnop, Cheng Wu, Chen Xuemeng, Qiaozhi Zha, and Federico Bianchi
Aerosol Research, 3, 15–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines new particle formation (NPF) in the Bolivian Andes at Chacaltaya mountain (CHC) and the urban El Alto–La Paz area (EAC). Days are clustered into four categories based on NPF intensity. Differences in particle size, precursor gases, and pollution levels are found. High NPF intensities increased Aitken mode particle concentrations at both sites, while volcanic influence selectively diminished NPF intensity at CHC but not EAC. This study highlights NPF dynamics in the Andes.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Zoé Brasseur, Julia Schneider, Janne Lampilahti, Ville Vakkari, Victoria A. Sinclair, Christina J. Williamson, Carlton Xavier, Dmitri Moisseev, Markus Hartmann, Pyry Poutanen, Markus Lampimäki, Markku Kulmala, Tuukka Petäjä, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Erik S. Thomson, Kristina Höhler, Ottmar Möhler, and Jonathan Duplissy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11305–11332, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) strongly influence the formation of clouds by initiating the formation of ice crystals. However, very little is known about the vertical distribution of INPs in the atmosphere. Here, we present aircraft measurements of INP concentrations above the Finnish boreal forest. Results show that near-surface INPs are efficiently transported and mixed within the boundary layer and occasionally reach the free troposphere.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Clément Bouvier, Daan van den Broek, Madeleine Ekblom, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2961–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An analytical initial background state has been developed for moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet and implemented into OpenIFS. Seven parameters can be controlled, which are used to generate the background states and the development of baroclinic waves. The meteorological and numerical stability has been assessed. Resulting baroclinic waves have proven to be realistic and sensitive to the jet's width.
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Sara Tahvonen, Arineh Cholakian, Manuel Bettineschi, Bruno Vitali, Tuukka Petäjä, and Federico Bianchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 545–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The terrestrial ecosystem releases large quantities of biogenic gases in the Earth's Atmosphere. These gases can effectively be converted into so-called biogenic aerosol particles and, eventually, affect the Earth's climate. Climate prediction varies greatly depending on how these processes are represented in model simulations. In this study, we present a detailed model evaluation analysis aimed at understanding the main source of uncertainty in predicting the formation of biogenic aerosols.
Kalle Nordling, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Harri Kokkola, Petri Räisänen, Antti Lipponen, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Jaakko Ahola, Juha Tonttila, Muzaffer Ege Alper, Hannele Korhonen, and Tomi Raatikainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that the global model is stable and it provides meaningful results. This way we can include a physics-based presentation of sub-grid physics (physics which happens on a 100 m scale) in the global model, whose resolution is on a 100 km scale.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Diego Aliaga, Otso Peräkylä, Liine Heikkinen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Cheng Wu, Joonas Enroth, Yvette Gramlich, Jing Cai, Samara Carbone, Armin Hansel, Tuukka Petäjä, Markku Kulmala, Douglas Worsnop, Victoria Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Claudia Mohr, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4559–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the chemical composition of atmospheric cluster ions from January to May 2018 at the high-altitude research station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes. With state-of-the-art mass spectrometers and air mass history analysis, the measured cluster ions exhibited distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns, some of which contributed to new particle formation. Our study will improve the understanding of atmospheric ions and their role in high-altitude new particle formation.
Wiebke Scholz, Jiali Shen, Diego Aliaga, Cheng Wu, Samara Carbone, Isabel Moreno, Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Liine Heikkinen, Jean Luc Jaffrezo, Gaelle Uzu, Eva Partoll, Markus Leiminger, Fernando Velarde, Paolo Laj, Patrick Ginot, Paolo Artaxo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Markku Kulmala, Claudia Mohr, Marcos Andrade, Victoria Sinclair, Federico Bianchi, and Armin Hansel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 895–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), emitted from the ocean, is the most abundant biogenic sulfur emission into the atmosphere. OH radicals, among others, can oxidize DMS to sulfuric and methanesulfonic acid, which are relevant for aerosol formation. We quantified DMS and nearly all DMS oxidation products with novel mass spectrometric instruments for gas and particle phase at the high mountain station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes in free tropospheric air after long-range transport.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Petri Räisänen, Joonas Merikanto, Risto Makkonen, Mikko Savolahti, Alf Kirkevåg, Maria Sand, Øyvind Seland, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11579–11602, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A climate model is used to evaluate how the radiative forcing (RF) associated with black carbon (BC) emissions depends on the latitude, longitude, and seasonality of emissions. It is found that both the direct RF (BC absorption of solar radiation in air) and snow RF (BC absorption in snow/ice) depend strongly on the emission region and season. The results suggest that, for a given mass of BC emitted, climatic impacts are likely to be largest for high-latitude emissions due to the large snow RF.
Victoria Anne Sinclair, Jenna Ritvanen, Gabin Urbancic, Irene Erner, Yurii Batrak, Dmitri Moisseev, and Mona Kurppa
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3075–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the boundary-layer (BL) height and surface stability in southern Finland using radiosondes, a microwave radiometer and ERA5 reanalysis. Accurately quantifying the BL height is challenging, and the diagnosed BL height can depend strongly on the method used. Microwave radiometers provide reliable estimates of the BL height but only in unstable conditions. ERA5 captures the BL height well except under very stable conditions, which occur most commonly at night during the warm season.
Jaakko Ahola, Tomi Raatikainen, Muzaffer Ege Alper, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Harri Kokkola, Antti Kukkurainen, Antti Lipponen, Jia Liu, Kalle Nordling, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Petri Räisänen, Juha Tonttila, and Hannele Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4523–4537, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are important for the climate, and cloud droplets have a significant role in cloud properties. Cloud droplets form when air rises and cools and water vapour condenses on small particles that can be natural or of anthropogenic origin. Currently, the updraft velocity, meaning how fast the air rises, is poorly represented in global climate models. In our study, we show three methods that will improve the depiction of updraft velocity and which properties are vital to updrafts.
Kerttu Kouki, Petri Räisänen, Kari Luojus, Anna Luomaranta, and Aku Riihelä
The Cryosphere, 16, 1007–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1007-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1007-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze state-of-the-art climate models’ ability to describe snow mass and whether biases in modeled temperature or precipitation can explain the discrepancies in snow mass. In winter, biases in precipitation are the main factor affecting snow mass, while in spring, biases in temperature becomes more important, which is an expected result. However, temperature or precipitation cannot explain all snow mass discrepancies. Other factors, such as models’ structural errors, are also significant.
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Joonas Merikanto, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Jouni Räisänen, Declan O'Donnell, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Hannele Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5865–5881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5865-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5865-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Human-induced aerosols concentrate around their emission sources, yet their climate effects span far and wide. Here, we use two climate models to robustly identify the mechanisms of how Asian anthropogenic aerosols impact temperatures across the globe. A total removal of Asian anthropogenic aerosols increases the global temperatures by 0.26 ± 0.04 °C in the models, with the strongest warming taking place over the Arctic due to increased atmospheric transport of energy towards the high north.
Terhikki Manninen, Kati Anttila, Emmihenna Jääskeläinen, Aku Riihelä, Jouni Peltoniemi, Petri Räisänen, Panu Lahtinen, Niilo Siljamo, Laura Thölix, Outi Meinander, Anna Kontu, Hanne Suokanerva, Roberta Pirazzini, Juha Suomalainen, Teemu Hakala, Sanna Kaasalainen, Harri Kaartinen, Antero Kukko, Olivier Hautecoeur, and Jean-Louis Roujean
The Cryosphere, 15, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-793-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-793-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The primary goal of this paper is to present a model of snow surface albedo (brightness) accounting for small-scale surface roughness effects. It can be combined with any volume scattering model. The results indicate that surface roughness may decrease the albedo by about 1–3 % in midwinter and even more than 10 % during the late melting season. The effect is largest for low solar zenith angle values and lower bulk snow albedo values.
Cited articles
Altenhoff, A. M., Martius, O., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Linkage of atmospheric blocks and synoptic-scale Rossby waves: a climatological analysis, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00354.x, 2008. a
Amiri, A., Gumiere, S. J., Gharabaghi, B., and Bonakdari, H.: From warm seas to flooded streets: The impact of sea surface temperature on cutoff low and extreme rainfall in Valencia, Spain, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 18, e13055, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13055, 2025. a
Barnes, E. A.: Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 4734–4739, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880, 2013. a
Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, Journal of Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a, b
Benjamini, Y. and Hochberg, Y.: Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 57, 289–300, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x, 1995. a
Berckmans, J., Woollings, T., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P.-L., and Roberts, M.: Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing, Atmospheric Science Letters, 14, 34–40, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.412, 2013. a
Bhatla, R., Maurya, A., Sinha, P., Verma, S., and Pant, M.: Assessment of climate change of different meteorological state variables during Indian summer monsoon season, Journal of Earth System Science, 131, 136, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-022-01878-1, 2022. a
Blackport, R. and Fyfe, J. C.: Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe, Science Advances, 8, eabn3112, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn3112, 2022. a
Blackport, R. and Screen, J. A.: Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves, Science Advances, 6, eaay2880, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880, 2020. a
Bowley, K. A., Gyakum, J. R., and Atallah, E. H.: The Role of Dynamic Tropopause Rossby Wave Breaking for Synoptic-Scale Buildups in Northern Hemisphere Zonal Available Potential Energy, Monthly Weather Review, 147, 433–455, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0143.1, 2019b. a
Butler, A. H., Thompson, D. W. J., and Birner, T.: Isentropic Slopes, Downgradient Eddy Fluxes, and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to Tropical Tropospheric Heating, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68, 2292–2305, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-10-05025.1, 2011. a
Chen, Z., Zhou, T., Zhang, L., Chen, X., Zhang, W., and Jiang, J.: Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086902, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086902, 2020. a
Crameri, F., Shephard, G. E., and Heron, P. J.: The misuse of colour in science communication, Nature Communications, 11, 5444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7, 2020. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model, GitHub [code], https://github.com/ESCOMP/CESM, 2025 a
de Vries, A. J.: A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 129–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021, 2021. a
de Vries, H., Woollings, T., Anstey, J., Haarsma, R. J., and Hazeleger, W.: Atmospheric blocking and its relation to jet changes in a future climate, Climate Dynamics, 41, 2643–2654, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1699-7, 2013. a
Dolores-Tesillos, E., Martius, O., and Quinting, J.: On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, 2025. a
Dorrington, J., Strommen, K., and Fabiano, F.: Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 505–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, 2022. a
Ester, M., Kriegel, H.-P., Sander, J., and Xu, X.: A density-based algorithm for discovering clusters in large spatial databases with noise, in: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD'96, AAAI Press, Portland, Oregon, 226–231, ISBN 1-57735-004-9, 1996. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Ferreira, R. N.: Cut-Off Lows and Extreme Precipitation in Eastern Spain: Current and Future Climate, Atmosphere, 12, 835, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070835, 2021. a
Grise, K. M. and Polvani, L. M.: The response of midlatitude jets to increased CO2: Distinguishing the roles of sea surface temperature and direct radiative forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 6863–6871, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061638, 2014. a, b, c
Harvey, B. J., Cook, P., Shaffrey, L. C., and Schiemann, R.: The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f
Held, I. M.: Large-Scale Dynamics and Global Warming, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 74, 228–242, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<0228:LSDAGW>2.0.CO;2,1993. a
Hinton, T. J., Hoskins, B. J., and Martin, G. M.: The influence of tropical sea surface temperatures and precipitation on north Pacific atmospheric blocking, Climate Dynamics, 33, 549–563, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0542-7, 2009. a
IPCC: Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information, in: Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 553–672, ISBN 978-1-009-15788-9, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2023. a
Jing, P. and Banerjee, S.: Rossby Wave Breaking and Isentropic Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange During 1981–2015 in the Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 9011–9025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028997, 2018. a, b
LaChat, G., Bowley, K. A., and Gervais, M.: Diagnosing Flavors of Tropospheric Rossby Wave Breaking and Their Associated Dynamical and Sensible Weather Features, Monthly Weather Review, 152, 513–530, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0153.1, 2024. a
Liu, C. and Barnes, E. A.: Extreme moisture transport into the Arctic linked to Rossby wave breaking, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 3774–3788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022796, 2015. a
Lohmann, R., Purr, C., and Ahrens, B.: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP6 Climate Projections Using a Hybrid Index, Journal of Climate, 37, 6605–6625, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0589.1, 2024. a, b
Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K. D.: Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 1322–1350, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3739, 2020. a
Martin, J. E.: Recent Trends in the Waviness of the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Polar and Subtropical Jets, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033668, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033668, 2021. a
Martineau, P., Chen, G., and Burrows, D. A.: Wave Events: Climatology, Trends, and Relationship to Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking and Weather Extremes, Journal of Climate, 30, 5675–5697, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0692.1, 2017. a
Martius, O., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Breaking Waves at the Tropopause in the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere: Climatological Analyses of the Orientation and the Theoretical LC1/2 Classification, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 2576–2592, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3977.1, 2007. a, b
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T. J.: Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, 1285–1296, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.990, 2012. a, b
Matsueda, M. and Endo, H.: The robustness of future changes in Northern Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface temperature patterns, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5158–5166, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073336, 2017. a
McIntyre, M. E. and Palmer, T. N.: Breaking planetary waves in the stratosphere, Nature, 305, 593–600, https://doi.org/10.1038/305593a0, 1983. a, b
Michel, C. and Rivière, G.: The Link between Rossby Wave Breakings and Weather Regime Transitions, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68, 1730–1748, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3635.1, 2011. a, b
Naakka, T., Köhler, D., Nordling, K., Räisänen, P., Lund, M. T., Makkonen, R., Merikanto, J., Samset, B. H., Sinclair, V. A., Thomas, J. L., and Ekman, A. M. L.: Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025a. a, b, c
Naakka, T., Ekman, A. M. L., Lewinschal, A., Nordling, K.: Global fields of meteorological and aerosol data from seven experiments with the NorESM2 model under different warming scenarios, Dataset version 1, Bolin Centre Database [data set], https://doi.org/10.17043/naakka-2025-noresm2-1, 2025b. a
Ndarana, T. and Waugh, D. W.: A Climatology of Rossby Wave Breaking on the Southern Hemisphere Tropopause, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68, 798–811, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3460.1, 2011. a, b
Nie, Y., Chen, G., Lu, J., Zhou, W., and Zhang, Y.: Constraining the Varied Response of Northern Hemisphere Winter Circulation Waviness to Climate Change, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102150, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102150, 2023. a
Nordling, K.: CESM2 Seaice and SST experiment for crices project, NIRD RDA, [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00018, 2024. a
Notz, D. and Community, S.: Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749, 2020. a, b
Ossó, A., Bladé, I., Karpechko, A., Li, C., Maraun, D., Romppainen-Martius, O., Shaffrey, L., Voigt, A., Woollings, T., and Zappa, G.: Advancing Our Understanding of Eddy-driven Jet Stream Responses to Climate Change – A Roadmap, Current Climate Change Reports, 11, 2, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-024-00199-3, 2024. a
Overland, J., Francis, J. A., Hall, R., Hanna, E., Kim, S.-J., and Vihma, T.: The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?, Journal of Climate, 28, 7917–7932, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1,2015. a
O’Gorman, P. A.: Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 19176–19180, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107, 2010. a
Peings, Y., Cattiaux, J., Vavrus, S. J., and Magnusdottir, G.: Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 074016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc79, 2018. a
Peings, Y., Labe, Z. M., and Magnusdottir, G.: Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?, Journal of Climate, 34, 3751–3769, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1, 2021. a, b, c
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A New Perspective on Blocking, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b, c, d
Peters, D. and Waugh, D. W.: Influence of Barotropic Shear on the Poleward Advection of Upper-Tropospheric Air, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53, 3013–3031, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3013:IOBSOT>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a, b, c
Peters, D. and Waugh, D. W.: Rossby Wave Breaking in the Southern Hemisphere Wintertime Upper Troposphere, Monthly Weather Review, 131, 2623–2634, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2623:RWBITS>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b, c
Pinheiro, H., Gan, M., and Hodges, K.: Structure and evolution of intense austral cut-off lows, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3900, 2021. a
Postel, G. A. and Hitchman, M. H.: A Climatology of Rossby Wave Breaking along the Subtropical Tropopause, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0359:ACORWB>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b, c, d
Postel, G. A. and Hitchman, M. H.: A Case Study of Rossby Wave Breaking along the Subtropical Tropopause, Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2555–2569, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2555:ACSORW>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a, b, c
Ren, X., Zhang, Y., and Xiang, Y.: Connections between wintertime jet stream variability, oceanic surface heating, and transient eddy activity in the North Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009464, 2008. a
Rex, D. F.: Blocking Action in the Middle Troposphere and its Effect upon Regional Climate, Tellus, 2, 196–211, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00331.x, 1950. a
Rivière, G.: Effect of Latitudinal Variations in Low-Level Baroclinicity on Eddy Life Cycles and Upper-Tropospheric Wave-Breaking Processes, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66, 1569–1592, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2919.1, 2009. a, b, c, d
Rivière, G.: A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68, 1253–1272, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3641.1, 2011. a, b
Rivière, G. and Orlanski, I.: Characteristics of the Atlantic Storm-Track Eddy Activity and Its Relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 241–266, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3850.1, 2007. a, b, c
Scott, R. K. and Cammas, J.-P.: Wave Breaking and Mixing at the Subtropical Tropopause, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59, 2347–2361, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<2347:WBAMAT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3905091, 2025. a
Simpson, I. R., Shaw, T. A., and Seager, R.: A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0325.1, 2014. a, b, c
Smith, D. M., Screen, J. A., Deser, C., Cohen, J., Fyfe, J. C., García-Serrano, J., Jung, T., Kattsov, V., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Peings, Y., Sigmond, M., Ukita, J., Yoon, J.-H., and Zhang, X.: The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019. a
Sprenger, M., Wernli, H., and Bourqui, M.: Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange and Its Relation to Potential Vorticity Streamers and Cutoffs near the Extratropical Tropopause, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1587–1602, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3911.1, 2007. a
Strong, C. and Magnusdottir, G.: How Rossby wave breaking over the Pacific forces the North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, 35, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033578, 2008a. a, b, c
Strong, C. and Magnusdottir, G.: Tropospheric Rossby Wave Breaking and the NAO/NAM, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65, 2861–2876, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2632.1, 2008b. a, b, c, d
Tahvonen, S.: Rossby wave breaking detection algorithm, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15357272, 2025. a
Takemura, K. and Mukougawa, H.: Dynamical Relationship between Quasi-stationary Rossby Wave Propagation along the Asian Jet and Pacific-Japan Pattern in Boreal Summer, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 98, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2020-010, 2020. a
Takemura, K., Mukougawa, H., and Maeda, S.: Decrease of Rossby Wave Breaking Frequency over the Middle North Pacific in Boreal Summer under Global Warming in Large-Ensemble Climate Simulations, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 99, 879–897, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2021-042, 2021. a, b, c, d
Tamarin-Brodsky, T. and Harnik, N.: The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024. a
Trevisiol, A., Gilli, L., and Faggian, P.: Short and long-term projections of Rossby wave packets and blocking events with particular attention to the northern hemisphere, Global and Planetary Change, 209, 103750, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103750, 2022. a
Weijenborg, C., de Vries, H., and Haarsma, R. J.: On the direction of Rossby wave breaking in blocking, Climate Dynamics, 39, 2823–2831, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1332-1, 2012. a, b
Wernli, H. and Sprenger, M.: Identification and ERA-15 Climatology of Potential Vorticity Streamers and Cutoffs near the Extratropical Tropopause, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1569–1586, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3912.1, 2007. a, b, c
Wilks, D. S.: “The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points”: How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted, and What to Do about It, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2263–2273, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1, 2016. a
Woollings, T. and Blackburn, M.: The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns, Journal of Climate, 25, 886–902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00087.1, 2012. a
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its Response to Climate Change, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b, c, d
Yamamoto, A. and Martineau, P.: On the Driving Factors of the Future Changes in the Wintertime Northern-Hemisphere Atmospheric Waviness, Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL108793, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108793, 2024. a, b
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005. a
Yin, M., Yang, X.-Q., Sun, L., Tao, L., and Keenlyside, N.: Amplified wintertime Arctic warming causes Eurasian cooling via nonlinear feedback of suppressed synoptic eddy activities, Science Advances, 11, eadr6336, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr6336, 2025. a
Zavadoff, B. L. and Kirtman, B. P.: North Atlantic Summertime Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking: Climatology, Impacts, and Connections to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Climate, 32, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0304.1, 2019. a, b
Zhao, S. and Sun, J.: Study on cut-off low-pressure systems with floods over Northeast Asia, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 96, 159–180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0226-3, 2007. a
Zhou, W., Leung, L. R., and Lu, J.: Seasonally and Regionally Dependent Shifts of the Atmospheric Westerly Jets under Global Warming, Journal of Climate, 35, 5433–5447, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0723.1, 2022. a, b
Short summary
Rossby wave breaking (RWB) influences weather at a large scale and can contribute to extreme weather events, but it is not known if climate change will have an effect on where and how often RWB occurs. We investigate how extreme sea ice loss and warming of the sea surface effect RWB. Our results show that sea surface temperatures significantly change local RWB frequencies and the closely related upper atmospheric jet streams, but that sea ice changes have no noticeable effect in our experiments.
Rossby wave breaking (RWB) influences weather at a large scale and can contribute to extreme...
