Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1443-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1443-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Research article
 | 
18 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 18 Nov 2025

Seasonal Predictability of Vapor Pressure Deficit in the western United States

Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew Hoell, Rochelle P. Worsnop, John R. Albers, Mike Hobbins, Rachel M. Robinson, and Daniel J. Vimont

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Short summary
We explore the predictability of saturation vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key indicator of wildfire danger, one to 18 months in advance. Seasonal VPD forecasts are generated using a statistical dynamical model that produces high VPD skill related to a long-term warming trend and sea surface temperatures. Understanding where forecast skill comes from is important to for improving forecast models, and this study shows the role of multiple unique processes in contributing to VPD forecasts.
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