Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1661-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1661-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 04 Dec 2025

Signal, noise and skill in sub-seasonal forecasts: the role of teleconnections

Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amy H. Butler, and Frederic Vitart

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Model code and software

Data and python codes for the manuscript "Signal, noise and skill in sub-seasonal forecasts: the role of teleconnections" by Karpechko et al. A. Yu. Karpechko https://doi.org/10.57707/FMI-B2SHARE.FC392EBDC5724265B4B7D6A98B149D48

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Short summary
We study how the knowledge of future tropical and stratospheric conditions could improve forecasts in winter remotely, via teleconnections, 3–6 weeks ahead. We find that the tropics improve forecasts of sea level pressure in subtropics, Europe, and North America. The stratosphere improves forecasts in high latitudes and Europe. Improvements are small for temperature and precipitation. Larger forecast ensembles than usually available for research are needed to predict teleconnection signals.
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