Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
Research article
 | 
29 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 29 Aug 2025

Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming from the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project

Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and William J. M. Seviour

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Short summary
Using a new database of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, we find that with a successful forecast of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), S2S models can capture the European precipitation signals after the 2018 SSW several weeks in advance. The findings indicate that the stratosphere represents an important source of S2S predictability for precipitation over Europe and call for consideration of stratospheric variability in hydrological prediction at S2S timescales.
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Stratospheric impacts on climate variability and predictability...