Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025
Research article
 | 
29 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 29 Aug 2025

Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming from the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project

Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and William J. M. Seviour

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Cited articles

Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, D., Wulff, C. O., Sprenger, M., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024. a
Ayarzaguena, B., Barriopedro, D., Perez, J. M. G., Abalos, M., de la Camara, A., Herrera, R. G., Calvo, N., and Ordonez, C.: Stratospheric connection to the abrupt end of the 2016/2017 iberian drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. a
Butler, A. H., Sjoberg, J. P., Seidel, D. J., and Rosenlof, K. H.: A sudden stratospheric warming compendium, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 63–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f
Butler, A. H., Lawrence, Z. D., Lee, S. H., Lillo, S. P., and Long, C. S.: Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3858, 2020. a, b
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Short summary
Using a new database of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, we find that with a successful forecast of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), S2S models can capture the European precipitation signals after the 2018 SSW several weeks in advance. The findings indicate that the stratosphere represents an important source of S2S predictability for precipitation over Europe and call for consideration of stratospheric variability in hydrological prediction at S2S timescales.
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