Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jul 2026
Research article |
| 06 Jul 2026
| 06 Jul 2026
Revisiting the surface impacts of the QBO in the Large Ensemble Single Forcing MIP simulations: are teleconnections still too weak?
Chaim I. Garfinkel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
David Avisar
Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Department of Applied Math, Environmental Sciences Division, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness Ziona, Israel
Scott M. Osprey
Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
Doug Smith
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
State Key Laboratory of Environment Characteristics and Effects for Near-space, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Jonathon S. Wright
Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Related authors
Dong-Chan Hong, Seok-Woo Son, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Yu-Kyung Hyun, and Jiankai Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2798, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) influences surface climate. By comparing multi-model simulations, we isolated and quantified the role of SSWs. Results reveal that poleward mass transport during SSWs induces high pressure over the Arctic, driving changes in extratropical circulations. While SSWs alter the troposphere, chaotic internal weather variability can amplify or suppress their influence, explaining the differing surface impacts following SSWs.
Qian Lu, Jian Rao, Chunhua Shi, and Chaim I. Garfinkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5763–5780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5763-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5763-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor has an impact on global temperature changes. Tropical stratospheric water vapor exhibits a clear imprint of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). This study compares the water vapor variations associated with the QBO between boreal winter and summer, and the seasonal difference in the stratospheric water vapor distribution under different QBO phases is revealed.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tiffany Shaw, Benny Keller, Edwin P. Gerber, Ian P. White, Martin Jucker, Wuhan Ning, Ori Adam, and Siming Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1767, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Midlatitude storm tracks are stronger over ocean basins than continents, and also stronger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. It is still not clear how Earth's land-ocean distribution, ocean heat transport, and orography, set up this structure. We use an intermediate complexity moist general circulation model to reveal substantial non-additivities in the response to these inhomogeneities, and then diagnose why.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Peter Hitchcock, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zac D. Lawrence, Wuhan Ning, Philip Rupp, Zheng Wu, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Martin Jucker, Gerbrand Koren, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gloria L. Manney, Marisol Osman, Masakazu Taguchi, Cory Barton, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Piero Malguzzi, Daniele Mastrangelo, Jiyoung Oh, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Isla R. Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Damien Specq, and Tim Stockdale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 411–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the stratosphere, which depends on both the tropospheric and stratospheric states. However, the relative role of each state is still unclear. Using a new set of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, we show that the stratospheric state does not drastically affect the precursors of three recent SSWs, but modulates the stratospheric wave activity, with impacts depending on SSW features.
William J. M. Seviour, Justin Finkel, Philip Rupp, Regan Mudhar, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Eun-Pa Lim, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gabriele Messori, Gerbrand Koren, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson, and Seok-Woo Son
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, 2026
Short summary
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Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
Wuhan Ning, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Judah Cohen, Ian P. White, and Jian Rao
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 277–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-277-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-277-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Whether the zonal structure of a polar vortex matters for surface climate is an open question, with much observational work showing a role but with limited modeling work and demonstration of a causal influence. Here, we isolate this influence using a moist general circulation model. We find that the surface responses differ qualitatively depending on the zonal asymmetries of the shifted polar vortex and concurrently occurring wave reflection events, and provide a mechanistic explanation for why.
Cristiana Stan, Saisri Kollapaneni, Andrea M. Jenney, Jiabao Wang, Zheng Wu, Cheng Zheng, Hyemi Kim, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and Ayush Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7969–7985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7969-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7969-2025, 2025
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The diagnostics package is an open-source Python software package used for evaluating the Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections to the extratropics, as predicted by subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast systems.
David Avisar and Chaim I. Garfinkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4287, 2025
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We use the Large Ensemble Single Forcing simulations to assess the role of individual forcings to the Mediterranean drying and to clarify the dynamical origin of the model’s prediction variability. A more pronounced North Atlantic warming hole, a stronger stratospheric polar vortex, and a larger poleward shift of the subtropical jet correlate with a stronger drying trend. Aerosols had a detectable influence on Mediterranean climate. Hence, their removal may have an impact in future decades.
Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025, 2025
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Using a new database of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, we find that with a successful forecast of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), S2S models can capture the European precipitation signals after the 2018 SSW several weeks in advance. The findings indicate that the stratosphere represents an important source of S2S predictability for precipitation over Europe and call for consideration of stratospheric variability in hydrological prediction at S2S timescales.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, 2025
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Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
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Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Hyun-Kyu Lee, James A. Anstey, Hye-Yeong Chun, Shingo Watanabe, Francois Lott, Zhaoyang Chai, Yixiong Lu, Qi Tang, Jinbo Xie, Dong-Chan Hong, Seok-Woo Son, Federico Serva, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Aleena M. Jaison, Jeff R. Knight, Scott Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Kohei Yoshida, Yoshio Kawatani, and Jadwiga H. Richter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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This study investigates the systematic biases in equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) by comparing internally generated and bias-corrected experiments using a multi-model ensemble. Although nudging effectively mitigates QBO biases, systematic biases in wave forcing are not fully resolved. The equatorial wave forcing in the lower stratosphere remains weaker than that in reanalyses, while an eastward wave forcing bias is observed in the mid-to-upper stratosphere.
Dong-Chan Hong, Seok-Woo Son, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Yu-Kyung Hyun, and Jiankai Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2798, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) influences surface climate. By comparing multi-model simulations, we isolated and quantified the role of SSWs. Results reveal that poleward mass transport during SSWs induces high pressure over the Arctic, driving changes in extratropical circulations. While SSWs alter the troposphere, chaotic internal weather variability can amplify or suppress their influence, explaining the differing surface impacts following SSWs.
James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Jadwiga H. Richter, Tim Stockdale, Martin B. Andrews, Zhaoyang Chai, Paolo Davini, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Federico Serva, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We describe experiments where modelled tropical stratosphere winds are adjusted by "nudging" them toward realistic time-evolving eastward and westward Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) winds. The effects of this bias correction on other atmospheric processes, such as the stratospheric polar vortex or tropical waves that force the QBO, can then be assessed. We describe details of the experiments, the multi-model ensemble that has performed them, and basic validation of the nudging response.
Mian Chin, Jonathon S. Wright, Huisheng Bian, Qian Tan, Xiaohua Pan, Toshihiko Takemura, Hitoshi Matsui, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne Bauer, Paul Ginoux, Yiran Peng, Zengyuan Guo, Suvarna Fadnavis, Anton Laakso, John P. Burrows, Ghassan Taha, Jayanta Kar, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, Landon Rieger, and Adam Bourassa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6035–6059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, 2026
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Aerosols in the upper troposphere influence weather and climate. The Asian summer monsoon efficiently transports surface pollutants upward, shaping aerosol amounts and variability in the upper troposphere. Using multiple global models, this study finds a summertime increase in upper-tropospheric aerosols at 1.2 % per year from 2000 to 2018 over Asia, consistent with rising pollutant emissions in Asia, while year-to-year changes are mainly driven by climate variability affecting monsoon dynamics.
Qian Lu, Jian Rao, Chunhua Shi, and Chaim I. Garfinkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5763–5780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5763-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5763-2026, 2026
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Stratospheric water vapor has an impact on global temperature changes. Tropical stratospheric water vapor exhibits a clear imprint of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). This study compares the water vapor variations associated with the QBO between boreal winter and summer, and the seasonal difference in the stratospheric water vapor distribution under different QBO phases is revealed.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tiffany Shaw, Benny Keller, Edwin P. Gerber, Ian P. White, Martin Jucker, Wuhan Ning, Ori Adam, and Siming Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1767, 2026
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Midlatitude storm tracks are stronger over ocean basins than continents, and also stronger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. It is still not clear how Earth's land-ocean distribution, ocean heat transport, and orography, set up this structure. We use an intermediate complexity moist general circulation model to reveal substantial non-additivities in the response to these inhomogeneities, and then diagnose why.
Hongbin Chen, Jian Rao, Seok-Woo Son, Bin Guan, and Mengxin Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-836, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-836, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We present a global atmospheric river (AR) database derived from ERA5 reanalysis (1940–2024). By employing a novel multi-method fusion algorithm, this database provides AR identification results at a horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° and a temporal resolution of 6 hours. Characterized by enhanced algorithmic robustness and extensive temporal coverage, it offers a valuable resource for further weather and climate research.
Rongzhao Lu and Jian Rao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3723–3742, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3723-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3723-2026, 2026
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The downward impact of sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) on the troposphere is still controversial. We further classify downward-propagating SSWs (DWs) into three types that are followed by cold surges over Eurasia (EA), over North America (NA), and over both (BOTH), respectively. This study reveals the diversity of the DWs and distinguishes their potential impact on both continents in the Northern Hemisphere.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Peter Hitchcock, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zac D. Lawrence, Wuhan Ning, Philip Rupp, Zheng Wu, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Martin Jucker, Gerbrand Koren, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gloria L. Manney, Marisol Osman, Masakazu Taguchi, Cory Barton, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Piero Malguzzi, Daniele Mastrangelo, Jiyoung Oh, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Isla R. Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Damien Specq, and Tim Stockdale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 411–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, 2026
Short summary
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Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the stratosphere, which depends on both the tropospheric and stratospheric states. However, the relative role of each state is still unclear. Using a new set of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, we show that the stratospheric state does not drastically affect the precursors of three recent SSWs, but modulates the stratospheric wave activity, with impacts depending on SSW features.
Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Ewa Bednarz, Dillon Elsbury, Jorge L. García-Franco, Vinay Kumar, Froila M. Palmeiro, Natasha E. Trencham, Kohei Yoshida, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, François Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott M. Osprey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Federico Serva, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, and Jinbo Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-737, 2026
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The observed winds in the upper atmosphere over the equator have alternating easterly and westerly regions that descend towards the lower atmosphere before dissipating, with a period of approximately 28 months. This is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The QBO is known to influence remote regions of the atmosphere. This paper details the results of multi-model experiments where the QBO is nudged towards the observed QBO allowing the assessment of these remote connections.
William J. M. Seviour, Justin Finkel, Philip Rupp, Regan Mudhar, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Eun-Pa Lim, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gabriele Messori, Gerbrand Koren, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson, and Seok-Woo Son
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, 2026
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Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-558, 2026
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We study the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, a high-altitude system critical to Asian summer weather. Global data analysis over two decades reveals three stable centers (instead of a single vortex), wind/water vapor heat drivers, and the process of west/east propagation and dissipation.
Dillon Elsbury, Federico Serva, Julie M. Caron, Seung-Yoon Back, Clara Orbe, Jadwiga H. Richter, James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Froila M. Palmeiro, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 317–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, 2026
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We used climate models to test how constant El Niño and La Niña ocean conditions shape the Madden-Julian Oscillation during northern winter. El Niño made this weather pattern move faster, while La Niña slowed it down. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a repeating wind pattern high in the atmosphere, had little effect. This shows that long-lasting ocean conditions mainly drive the changes we found.
Wuhan Ning, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Judah Cohen, Ian P. White, and Jian Rao
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 277–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-277-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-277-2026, 2026
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Whether the zonal structure of a polar vortex matters for surface climate is an open question, with much observational work showing a role but with limited modeling work and demonstration of a causal influence. Here, we isolate this influence using a moist general circulation model. We find that the surface responses differ qualitatively depending on the zonal asymmetries of the shifted polar vortex and concurrently occurring wave reflection events, and provide a mechanistic explanation for why.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, 2026
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, 2025
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We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.
Hiroaki Naoe, Jorge L. García-Franco, Chang-Hyun Park, Mario Rodrigo, Froila M. Palmeiro, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Kohei Yoshida, James A. Anstey, Javier García-Serrano, Seok-Woo Son, Yoshio Kawatani, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Chih-Chieh Chen, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Clara Orbe, Scott Osprey, Mijeong Park, Jadwiga H. Richter, Stefan Versick, and Shingo Watanabe
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1419–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1419-2025, 2025
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Links between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and atmospheric circulations in the tropics, subtropics, and polar regions, as well as their modulation by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, are examined through model experiments. The QBO–polar vortex connection is reproduced by a multi-model ensemble at about half the observed amplitude. Weak performance of QBO signals in these regions is likely due to unrealistically weak QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere.
Cristiana Stan, Saisri Kollapaneni, Andrea M. Jenney, Jiabao Wang, Zheng Wu, Cheng Zheng, Hyemi Kim, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and Ayush Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7969–7985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7969-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7969-2025, 2025
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The diagnostics package is an open-source Python software package used for evaluating the Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections to the extratropics, as predicted by subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast systems.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, Masakazu Taguchi, Federico Serva, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mijeong Park, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshida
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1045–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, 2025
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
David Avisar and Chaim I. Garfinkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4287, 2025
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We use the Large Ensemble Single Forcing simulations to assess the role of individual forcings to the Mediterranean drying and to clarify the dynamical origin of the model’s prediction variability. A more pronounced North Atlantic warming hole, a stronger stratospheric polar vortex, and a larger poleward shift of the subtropical jet correlate with a stronger drying trend. Aerosols had a detectable influence on Mediterranean climate. Hence, their removal may have an impact in future decades.
Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Jonathon S. Wright, Sean M. Davis, Jie Gao, Paul Konopka, Ninghui Li, Mengqian Lu, Susann Tegtmeier, Xiaolu Yan, Guang J. Zhang, and Nuanliang Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10109–10139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, 2025
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Swirling above summer storms, the Asian monsoon anticyclone functions as both gateway and gatekeeper to moisture entering the stratosphere. Although well monitored from space since 2005, many details of the anticyclone and the air that flows through it remain mysterious. Reanalyses, which combine model output and observations, may help to address how and why but only if they reliably capture the what and where of water vapor variations. Current reanalyses are beginning to meet these criteria.
Jonathon S. Wright, Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Sean M. Davis, Paul Konopka, Mengqian Lu, Xiaolu Yan, and Guang J. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9617–9643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric reanalysis products reconstruct past states of the atmosphere. These products are often used to study winds and temperatures in the upper-level monsoon circulation, but their ability to reproduce composition fields like water vapor and ozone has been questionable at best. Here we report clear signs of improvement in both consistency across reanalyses and agreement with satellite observations, outline limitations, and suggest steps to further enhance the usefulness of these fields.
Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025, 2025
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Using a new database of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, we find that with a successful forecast of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), S2S models can capture the European precipitation signals after the 2018 SSW several weeks in advance. The findings indicate that the stratosphere represents an important source of S2S predictability for precipitation over Europe and call for consideration of stratospheric variability in hydrological prediction at S2S timescales.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, 2025
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Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1489–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, 2024
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Models have biases in semi-annual oscillation (SAO) representation, mainly due to insufficient eastward wave forcing. We examined if the bias is from increased wave absorption due to circulation biases in the low–middle stratosphere. Alleviating biases at lower altitudes improves the SAO, but substantial bias remains. Alternative methods like gravity wave parameterization changes should be explored to enhance the modelled SAO, potentially improving sudden stratospheric warming predictability.
Rongzhao Lu and Jian Rao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2179, 2024
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The SSWs are classified into downward-propagating (DW) SSWs with noticeable impacts on the troposphere and non-downward-propagating (NDW). The DW events are further classified into three types. This study improves our understanding of the diversity of the SSWs.
Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Stergios Misios, Scott Osprey, and Hedi Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, 2024
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This study has examined a set of reanalyses, both modern and 20th Century, to evaluate the robustness of the signatures of the 11-yr solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate. We find a robust response to the 11-yr solar cycle over the North Atlantic sector with a positive SLP anomaly north of the Azores region at lags of +2–3 years following solar maximum. An ocean reanalysis dataset shows that thermal inertia of the ocean could explain the lag in the SC response.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
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A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Zizhan Hu, Yiran Peng, Mengke Zhu, and Jonathon S. Wright
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-828, 2024
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Clouds and precipitation are among the most difficult features of the climate system to simulate. Water isotopes provide valuable information about how clouds and precipitation develop and evolve, but most models that simulate water isotopes cannot resolve individual clouds. Here we introduce a new isotope-enabled model, iPyCLES, that simulates liquid and ice clouds on scales of 10 to 100 meters. This model can help to translate isotopic observations into constraints for larger-scale models.
Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2465–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, 2024
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In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Zefan Ju, Jian Rao, Yue Wang, Junfeng Yang, and Qian Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14903–14918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14903-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14903-2023, 2023
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In the paper, we explored the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on East China summer rainfall variability. It is novel to find that the combined impact of MJO and QBO is not maximized when the QBO and MJO are in phase to enhance (or suppress) the tropical convection.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Katherine E. Turner, Doug M. Smith, Anna Katavouta, and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 20, 1671–1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023, 2023
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We present a new method for reconstructing ocean carbon using climate models and temperature and salinity observations. To test this method, we reconstruct modelled carbon using synthetic observations consistent with current sampling programmes. Sensitivity tests show skill in reconstructing carbon trends and variability within the upper 2000 m. Our results indicate that this method can be used for a new global estimate for ocean carbon content.
Qian Lu, Jian Rao, Chunhua Shi, Dong Guo, Guiqin Fu, Ji Wang, and Zhuoqi Liang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13087–13102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13087-2022, 2022
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Existing evidence mainly focuses on the possible impact of tropospheric climate anomalies on the regional air pollutions, but few studies pay attention to the impact of stratospheric changes on haze pollutions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Our study reveals the linkage between the stratospheric variability and the regional atmospheric environment. The downward-propagating stratospheric signals might have a cleaning effect on the atmospheric environment in the BTH region.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
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This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
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Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Cited articles
Andrews, M. B., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A., Lu, Y., Wu, T., Gray, L. J., and Schenzinger, V.: Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 1219–1232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029368, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Andrews, M. B., Ridley, J. K., Wood, R. A., Andrews, T., Blockley, E. W., Booth, B., Burke, E., Dittus, A. J., Florek, P., Gray, L. J., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hermanson, L., Hodson, D. L. R., Hogan, E., Jones, C. D., Knight, J. R., Kuhlbrodt, T., Misios, S., Mizielinski, M. S., Ringer, M. A., Robson, J., Sutton, R. T., and Tang, Y.: Historical Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001995, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001995, 2020. a, b, c
Anstey, J. A., Simpson, I. R., Richter, J. H., Naoe, H., Taguchi, M., Serva, F., Gray, L. J., Butchart, N., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Bushell, A. C., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Garcia, R. R., Holt, L., Kawatani, Y., Kerzenmacher, T., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., McLandress, C., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T. N., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K., and Yukimoto, S.: Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a Multi-Model Ensemble of QBO-resolving Models, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148, 1568-1592, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048, 2021. a, b
Anstey, J. A., Osprey, S. M., Alexander, J., Baldwin, M. P., Butchart, N., Gray, L., Kawatani, Y., Newman, P. A., and Richter, J. H.: Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3, 588–603, 2022. a
Baldwin, M. P., Gray, L. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Hamilton, K., Haynes, P. H., Randel, W. J., Holton, J. R., Alexander, M. J., Hirota, I., Horinouchi, T., Jones, D. B. A., Kinnersley, J. S., Marquardt, C., Sato, K., and Takahashi, M.: The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Chéruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L. E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a, b, c
Butchart, N., Andrews, M. B., and Jones, C. D.: QBO phase synchronization in CMIP6 historical simulations attributed to ozone forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL104401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104401, 2023. a
Cinquini, L., Crichton, D., Mattmann, C., Harney, J., Shipman, G., Wang, F., Ananthakrishnan, R., Miller, N., Denvil, S., Morgan, M., Pobre, Z., Bell, G. M., Doutriaux, C., Drach, R., Williams, D., Kershaw, P., Pascoe, S., Gonzalez, E., Fiore, S., and Schweitzer, R.: The Earth System Grid Federation: An Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data, Future Generation Computer Systems, 36, 400–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2013.07.002, 2014. a
Collimore, C. C., Martin, D. W., Hitchman, M. H., Huesmann, A., and Waliser, D. E.: On The Relationship between the QBO and Tropical Deep Convection, J. Climate, 16, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2552:OTRBTQ>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Dai, Y., Hitchcock, P., Butler, A. H., Garfinkel, C. I., and Seviour, W. J. M.: Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming from the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-841-2025, 2025. a
Elsbury, D., Peings, Y., and Magnusdottir, G.: CMIP6 Models Underestimate the Holton-Tan Effect, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094083, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094083, 2021. a, b, c, d
Findell, K. L., Sutton, R., Caltabiano, N., Brookshaw, A., Heimbach, P., Kimoto, M., Osprey, S., Smith, D., Risbey, J. S., Wang, Z., Cheng, L., Diaz, L. B., Donat, M. G., Ek, M., Lee, J.-Y., Minobe, S., Rusticucci, M., Vitart, F., and Wang, L.: Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E325–E339, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1, 2023. a
García-Franco, J. L., Gray, L. J., Osprey, S., Chadwick, R., and Martin, Z.: The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022. a
García-Franco, J. L., Gray, L. J., Osprey, S., Jaison, A. M., Chadwick, R., and Lin, J.: Understanding the Mechanisms for Tropical Surface Impacts of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD038474, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038474, 2023. a
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Short summary
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates variability in the tropical stratosphere, & it impacts surface climate in several parts of the world. However, climate models have been shown to systematically under-estimate the influence of the QBO. Here, we re-evaluate this finding using much larger ensemble sizes than have been previously available based on four separate models. We find that the models are comparatively more successful in capturing QBO influences than reported by previous work.
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates variability in the tropical stratosphere, & it...
