Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Research article
 | 
16 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 16 Jan 2026

Predictability of extreme surface weather associated with Mediterranean cyclones in ECMWF ensemble forecasts – Part 1: Method and case studies

Katharina Hartmuth, Dominik Büeler, and Heini Wernli

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Short summary
This study presents three case studies of applying a newly developed method to quantify the uncertainty of the operational ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting precipitation and wind extremes associated with Mediterranean cyclones. We find that the cyclones as well as their associated extremes are predicted well for lead times ≤ 48 h; however, for longer lead times there is large case-to-case variability in the ensemble performance.
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