Seasonal prediction of springtime tornado activity in the United States using a hybrid model

Graber, Matthew; Wang, Zhuo; Trapp, Robert J.

doi:10.5194/wcd-7-1349-2026

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1349-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1349-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

Research article

|

28 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 28 Jul 2026

Seasonal prediction of springtime tornado activity in the United States using a hybrid model

Matthew Graber, Zhuo Wang, and Robert J. Trapp

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Final revised paper (published on 28 Jul 2026)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 04 Feb 2026)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on egusphere-2026-536', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Feb 2026

The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-536/egusphere-2026-536-RC1-supplement.pdf

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-536-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Matthew Graber, 28 Apr 2026
  
  Please see the attached supplement file for our response.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-536-AC1
RC2:
'Comment on egusphere-2026-536', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Mar 2026

The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-536/egusphere-2026-536-RC2-supplement.pdf

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-536-RC2
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Matthew Graber, 28 Apr 2026
  
  Please see the attached pdf for our response.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-536-AC2

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload

AR by Matthew Graber on behalf of the Authors (28 Apr 2026) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Apr 2026) by Amy Butler

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (12 May 2026)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (25 May 2026)

For final publication, the manuscript should be

accepted as is

accepted subject to technical corrections

accepted subject to minor revisions

reconsidered after major revisions

rejected

Were a revised manuscript to be sent for another round of reviews:

I would be willing to review the revised manuscript.

I would not be willing to review the revised manuscript.

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

Minor Comment:
In the revised manuscript, the authors add several new paragraphs into the introduction which define the modes of climate variability that they consider in their analysis and discuss why these mode of variability may impact the predictability of spring season tornado days and tornado outbreaks in the United States. The definition of these climate modes is concise and sufficient. However, in connecting these climate modes to tornado occurrence, all indices are connected to the jet stream (i.e., Lines 55-56: "ENSO modulates the strength and position of the Pacific jet stream...", Lines 65-66: "NAO and AO are strongly correlated and modulate the strength and position of the midlatitude jet stream...", Lines 75-76: "PNA modulates the position and intensity of the East Asian jet stream which influences large-scale circulations relevant for severe weather."). For clarity, the authors might consider slightly modifying this discussion. Later in the manuscript, the authors do discuss more in-depth how individual climate modes explicitly modify the circulation over the regions where tornadoes occur (see Section 3.2). They might include some discussion closer to these lines, including when such has been discussed in previous work, rather than solely stating that each mode "modifies the jet stream".

Line 53: ENSO should be written out in words here when it is first mentioned.
Line 94: TD should be defined here instead of in line 127 when it is first defined.
Lines 163-164: Citation here seems to have an error.
Section 3.3: Need to mention that "+-WR-X" means "active" and "-WR-X" means "inactive" weather regime years.
Line 355: "+WR" should be "+WR-A"

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ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (26 May 2026) by Amy Butler

AR by Matthew Graber on behalf of the Authors (09 Jun 2026) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Jun 2026) by Amy Butler

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Jul 2026)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (09 Jul 2026)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Jul 2026) by Amy Butler

AR by Matthew Graber on behalf of the Authors (16 Jul 2026) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (19 Jul 2026) by Amy Butler

AR by Matthew Graber on behalf of the Authors (19 Jul 2026)

Short summary

This study aims to seasonally predict springtime tornado activity using a weather-regime-based hybrid model and to identify the physical sources of predictability to explain the results. Tornado outbreaks, days with several tornadoes, exhibit model skill and should be a primary focus of future work given their societal impacts. Low-frequency climate modes are important sources of predictability for weather regimes, providing forecasts of opportunity for springtime tornado outbreaks.