Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1349-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1349-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2026

Seasonal prediction of springtime tornado activity in the United States using a hybrid model

Matthew Graber, Zhuo Wang, and Robert J. Trapp

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Short summary
This study aims to seasonally predict springtime tornado activity using a weather-regime-based hybrid model and to identify the physical sources of predictability to explain the results. Tornado outbreaks, days with several tornadoes, exhibit model skill and should be a primary focus of future work given their societal impacts. Low-frequency climate modes are important sources of predictability for weather regimes, providing forecasts of opportunity for springtime tornado outbreaks.
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