Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Aug 2026
| 17 Aug 2026
Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes
William J. M. Seviour
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Justin Finkel
Data Science Institute and Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Philip Rupp
Meteorological Institute Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
Regan Mudhar
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Amy H. Butler
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Chaim I. Garfinkel
Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
Peter Hitchcock
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Blanca Ayarzagüena
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Dong-Chan Hong
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Yu-Kyung Hyun
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of Korea
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Eun-Pa Lim
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Daniel De Maeseneire
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Gerbrand Koren
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michael Sigmond
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Isla R. Simpson
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Seok-Woo Son
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Model code and software
Code for submission: "Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes" Justin Finkel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18157368
Editorial statement
Quantifying the contribution of stratospheric processes to extreme weather events is a challenge. This study breaks new ground in the quantitative attribution of weather extremes to dynamical processes in the stratosphere. It applies two complementary statistical indicators (relative risk and quantile shift) to a coordinated set of experiments with several models to study the role of the stratosphere in three detailed case studies. The paper has the potential to be an authoritative study in this area due to its combination of rigor, depth and range of impacts.
Quantifying the contribution of stratospheric processes to extreme weather events is a...
Short summary
Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres, we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather...
